CNN’s resident data expert thinks that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are in some real trouble.
Harry Enten, the network’s chief data correspondent, appeared on Erin Burnett OutFront on Wednesday and shared that the Republicans’ odds of maintaining their majority in the Senate continue to dwindle by the day.
“It’s bad,” Enten said. “It’s like a nightmare for the Republicans. The Democrats just keep gaining and gaining and gaining when it comes to the Senate odds.”
The data guru turned to the Kalshi prediction market, which showed a 54 percent chance that Democrats will win the Senate as of 6:30 p.m. on Wednesday. The number jumped considerably from its Jan. 1 precedent, when it was only a 33 percent chance.
“Democrats haven’t just gained on Republicans, they actually have the majority chance at 54 percent, and that’s fairly close to a toss-up,” he said. “We all thought that the House was gonna go to the Democrats, but the Senate as well? Oh, boy. My goodness gracious.”
Enten then turned to the Cook Political Report released this week, which shifted four key races in Democrats’ favor.
The reporter pointed out that Georgia and North Carolina shifted from toss-ups to leaning Democratic, with North Carolina in particular a notable possible pickup for the Dems.
“How about Ohio—a state that Donald Trump won by double digits? From lean GOP to toss-up, with the likely Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown, the former senator," he said. “And then Nebraska—Nebraska hasn’t elected a Democratic or a non-Republican since 2006, but went from solid Republican to likely Republican.”
“Democrats are gaining in many different seats across the political map, putting new states into play, and that’s the reason why, at this point, they have a 54 percent chance of taking over the United States Senate.”
Enten concluded by shifting focus to another key demographic: voters with incomes under $50,000.
“You look at Ohio, right? You think of the working class, right? You think of those who, perhaps, have incomes less than $50,000,” he said. “Look at how much they have turned against the president of the United States.”
“His approval rating at the beginning of his second term was +2 points—down he goes, into the smithereens, now at -34 points on his net popularity rating," Enten added. “That’s an over 35-point shift in only about a year plus a few months’ time. No wonder all these states are in play.”
The Daily Beast reached out to the White House for comment.
Trump, 79, has faced considerable backlash throughout his second administration as Americans face inflation caused by his tariffs, skyrocketing gas prices from his war on Iran, and witness his apparent decline in his mental faculties.
