CNN’s data expert Harry Enten gave Democrats nothing but good news in his analysis of elections in the swing states of Georgia and Wisconsin on Tuesday.
The liberal-leaning candidate easily beat her opponent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, and the Trump-backed candidate in a ruby red Georgia congressional district won his seat, but only by 10 points, not the 37 points Donald Trump won the district by in 2024.
Enten said these are all positive signs for Democrats’ winning abilities in the upcoming midterm elections.
“Holy Toledo, holy cow, holy smokes,” he said. “Look at these shifts!”
Enten noted that Democratic candidates in elections since the 2024 presidential election, including the New Jersey and Virginia 2025 gubernatorial races, and now the elections in Georgia and Wisconsin, have exceeded former Vice President Kamala Harris’ vote margin.
He noted that liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Chris Taylor outperformed Harris by 21 points, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger outperformed her by 10 points, and New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill by 8 points.
“And this is even better, even better, than what Democrats had in the 2017, 2018 election cycles,” he noted.
“So this time around? Oh my goodness gracious, holy cow, holy smokes, holy Toledo!” he exclaimed, adding, “And of course Democrats took the House in 2018.”
He also broke down the significance of results from special congressional elections that have taken place since the 2024 presidential election, noting that even in races where the Democrat did not win, like in Georgia on Tuesday, Democrats still largely outperformed Harris in 2024.
“Look at this in Georgia... 25 points! My goodness gracious!” Enten said in disbelief.
“That beat all the other Dem overperformances, and they’ve overperformed in all of them, so we’re even getting higher than the highest of heights!” he added.
He noted that the special election in Georgia to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was the best overperformance for a Democrat in a special election since 2017.
The party is all but certain to regain control of the House in the November elections if trends continue, he predicted.
“When a party outperformed in special elections…five out of five times since the 2005, 2006 cycle, that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives,” he said.
Looking at prediction markets, Enten added that bettors have put Democrats at a 51 percent chance to take back not just the House, but the Senate as well.
“Up like a rocket,” he said, adding, “Holy smokes, folks.”
