CNN’s expert data analyst Harry Enten has warned Democrats that their lead in national polls is soft, and doesn’t guarantee them a House majority.
Looking back at polling data from before the 2006 and 2018 midterms, Enten identified a statistic that he believes should worry Democrats.
Averaging recent CNBC and Washington Post polling, Enten found that the Democrats are four points up in generic national polls, but that’s not a big enough lead to guarantee success, falling well below where they were polling ahead of House takeovers in 2006 and 2018.
In 2006, the Dems led by 12 points at this point in the cycle; in 2018, they led by 10.
“This is a warning sign, this is an uh-oh, yes Democrats are ahead, but not by anywhere near the margin in prior wave years,” Enten told CNN News Central’s anchor John Berman.
“You might not even get the House at all if, in fact, the House popular vote ends up at four,” he said.
That’s because redistricting has changed the electoral map, Enten says, and now Democrats need “probably a 3-4 point victory nationwide in the House to get a majority.”
The disconnect between President Donald Trump’s poor poll performance and the popularity of the Democratic Party is what is driving the Dems’ soft national lead.
Enten described the polling numbers as “troublesome for Democrats.”
“Despite all of Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the polls, they do not seem to be building an advantage that guarantees them the House or anything close,” he said.
Enten said the big worry for Democrats is staunch Republicans who may not support Trump but will not cross the aisle.
“There is a chunk of 2024 Trump voters who right now aren’t so hot to trot on Donald Trump, but are still very much in the Republican camp, and that for me is the worrisome sign for Democrats,” Enten said.
Democrats are eyeing a House majority in the midterms, and hope to flip enough Senate seats to potentially take both chambers.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Viet Shelton said he was confident the Democrats would “take back the House majority in November.”
“Everything is more expensive because House Republicans have broken their promise to lower the cost of living for everyday Americans,” he said.
“It’s no wonder that at every opportunity voters have had to cast their ballot this year, we’ve seen turnout at levels demonstrating how Democrats have the momentum, message, and—most importantly—the American people on our side.”
Trump’s deep unpopularity is built around his war in Iran, and the way the president’s policy choices have forced up the cost of everything from gas to healthcare.
