Could Virgil Goode Cost Romney Virginia?
Geoffrey Skelley pours cold water on speculation that followed today's announcement that Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode has qualified for the presidential election ballot in Virginia.
While Goode will win higher percentages in his native Southside, it’s hard to see him winning much more than 1% statewide. Remember that in 2008, Obama and John McCain combined to win 99% of the vote in Virginia. So perhaps Romney and Obama will combine for 98% of the vote this time around. That’s still the vast, vast majority of the vote. Therefore, the only way Goode will truly be a spoiler is if the Virginia result is decided by just a relative handful of votes. Could it be Florida 2000 all over again? Of course it could, but chances are that the outcome in Virginia is more likely to hinge on the efforts of the Obama and Romney campaigns and the state of the economy than it will on Goode’s performance in November. In other words, while we certainly believe the Romney campaign would prefer for Goode to not be on the ballot, we hardly think his presence makes an Obama victory in Virginia a fait accompli.
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