Democrats’ chance of winning the Senate is spiking to an all-time high.
Kalshi now gives Democrats a stunning 58 percent chance of taking back the Senate in November’s midterms—“the party’s highest probability so far on the prediction market, which gave the party just an 18 percent chance on the day President Donald Trump returned to office.
Democrats first passed Republicans as the favorites to control the Senate in April, but odds had swung back in the GOP’s favor despite widespread outrage with the president over gas prices and a months-long war with Iran.
However, Democrats overtook Republicans again this week, and their odds are rising quickly, as poll after poll shows Democratic Senate candidates leading key races.
The Cook Political Report currently lists seven Senate races as “toss-ups,” including in states that were considered comfortably red during the 2024 presidential election, like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa. The other three toss-ups are Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Beyond the toss-ups, Democrats are outright favored in North Carolina and Georgia—two states that Trump carried in 2024. Things are so grim for the MAGA-backed candidate in Georgia, Rep. Mike Collins, that GOP strategists are discussing whether they punt on the race altogether and spend their money elsewhere, The New York Times reported Thursday.
In total, 35 Senate seats are up for election in the midterms. “Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate. A net gain of just three would mean a 50-50 tie in the upper chamber, but Vice President JD Vance would be the tiebreaker.
Things are equally favorable for Democrats on the prediction market Polymarket. There, the party is given a whopping 60 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Democrats are also favored to retake the House in the next Congress. Kalshi gives the party an 88 percent chance of taking control of the House; Polymarket gives Democrats a 90 percent chance.
Looking further ahead, Kalshi gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of winning the next presidential election, with the party favorites being Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Vance is the favorite among Republicans, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
