President Donald Trump has been hit with a sobering intelligence assessment about the effectiveness of his renewed strikes on Iran.
The fragile ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran fell apart earlier this month when Trump announced new attacks in response to Iran’s continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Three soldiers have been killed and dozens more injured by Iran’s counterattacks, but it’s not clear what, if anything, the U.S. bombings are accomplishing, according to a new report from The Washington Post.
A new intelligence assessment has found that the latest rounds of U.S. strikes are not likely to significantly impact or soften the regime’s negotiating position, current and former U.S. officials told the paper.
Analysts have briefed the administration on their conclusion that both countries are stuck in an indefinite, deadly limbo between peace and war, with Trump’s escalating attacks unlikely to move the needle.
The latest report, which was written primarily by the CIA, was intended to reflect current and likely future trends based on all classified intelligence, the Post reported.
National security experts told the paper that the findings undermined Trump’s apparent belief that if he bombs Iran hard enough, Tehran will eventually become more flexible in its negotiating.
The Iranian government has repeatedly shown that its top priority is the regime’s survival, regardless of the harm inflicted on the people and the country, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East.
The Daily Beast has reached out to the Defense Department for comment.
U.S. Central Command launched fresh strikes on Monday for the ninth consecutive night, with Trump claiming the attacks were retaliation for the latest troop deaths.
First Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, were killed in Jordan while defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on Friday.
Central Command said Sunday that a third service member was reported missing in the attacks, and that “unidentified remains” have been found and were being examined, the AP reported Monday.
Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton, 30, was identified Tuesday as the soldier who died Saturday in northern Iraq during a “controlled detonation” of an Iranian drone, bringing the total number of confirmed fatalities from Trump’s war to 17.
Over the weekend, The New York Times published a report demonstrating that the military had failed to disclose injuries suffered by nearly 100 troops since fighting resumed on July 7.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell responded in a lengthy social media rant accusing the paper of attempting to “further distress the American people in the wake of three service members killed in action.”
The deaths underscore how the war, which Trump launched on Feb. 28 alongside Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, has spread far beyond Iranian territory.
It now extends to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, where Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia said it would impose a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
Both the U.S. and Iran have said they’re still open to diplomatic solutions, but it’s not clear what that would look like.
Previous rounds of talks have led to ambiguous agreements in which both sides disputed the outcome.
