President Donald Trump’s chaotic flip-flopping on the war in Iran is making a fortune for online prediction markets, some which have financial ties to Donald Trump Jr.
The markets, which have to come up with new betting lines every day, have collected fees from hundreds of millions of wagers on questions about whether Trump will send troops into Iran, declare a ceasefire, or be impeached, the AP reported.
One of the people benefitting is Don Jr., who has a stake in Polymarket and advises Kalshi.
According to the research firm Pitchmarket, Polymarket’s value has increased nearly tenfold—to $9.6 billion—in the past eight months, following an investment from a venture capital fund where Trump Jr. is a partner.
It’s not clear exactly how much Trump Jr. is benefitting from the increase because the private company doesn’t release ownership stakes.
President Joe Biden’s administration had banned Polymarket from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after fining it for running an unregistered exchange.
The Trump administration, on the other hand, has not only reinstated the company but moved aggressively to protect prediction markets, including suing states that are trying to ban the markets under no-gambling laws. The Trump Organization is also working on its own prediction market, Truth Predict.
Asked by the AP whether Don Jr. should be profiting from a business that makes money based on his father’s actions, a spokesperson called the question “fact-free Democratic propaganda.”
“Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets,” spokesperson Andrew Surabian said.
The Daily Beast has also reached out to the Trump Organization for comment.
On Polymarket, a total of 413 million bets on the Iran war were made during a particularly tumultuous four-day period from Sunday, April 5, through Wednesday April 8, according to the AP.
On April 5, Trump posted on his platform Truth Social demanding that Iran “Open the F---ing Strait” of Hormuz, leading bets to soar on whether or not an invasion was imminent.
On April 7, the president warned Iran that a “whole civilization will die tonight,” and the invasion question was surpassed by wagers about whether there would be a ceasefire.
After Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire, a wager on the site asked on April 8 whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran, and nearly 100,000 bets were placed.
More than $100 million was wagered on the Iran war in just four days, and that’s not counting all the other Trump-related questions posed on the site, the AP reported.
Days later, the White House sent a memo to staff reminding them that insider trading is a federal offense.
The email came after a series of suspiciously well-timed bets placed hours before Trump announced key decisions, including his willingness to hold off on bombing Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
