Nominees:
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Dexter (Showtime)
The Good Wife (CBS)
Lost (ABC)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Blood (HBO)
The competition for Outstanding Drama Series has proven extremely fierce yet again this year. While some were surprised by the inclusion of HBO's ratings-grabber
True Blood, the second season of the series (particularly "I Will Rise Up") moved the show from guilty pleasure to profound meditation on the complexities of the mortal coil. No surprise that newcomer
The Good Wife joined the pack after a fantastic freshman season, nor Showtime's
Dexter after its Trinity arc, but the true race comes down to
Breaking Bad,
Lost, and
Mad Men. It's
Mad Men that will likely take home the statue for the third year in a row after a heartbreaking season that saw the disintegration of the Drapers' marriage and the end of Sterling-Cooper.
What will win:
Mad Men
What should win:
Mad Men
Nominees:
30 Rock (NBC)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Glee (Fox)
Modern Family (ABC)
Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
The Office (NBC)
Former front-runner
30 Rock didn't have its best season this year, nor did fellow NBC comedy
The Office. HBO's
Curb Your Enthusiasm tweaked nostalgia with its Seinfeld reunion plot but it's likely too inside baseball for Academy voters. Showtime's
Nurse Jackie, while hysterically caustic, is too much of a dark horse to be a contender here. Which leaves the final showdown between ABC's family comedy
Modern Family and Fox's musical comedy
Glee. Despite the publicity and marketing overdrive around
Glee (and the success that some one-hour dramedies have encountered in this category in the past),
Modern Family finished a pitch-perfect freshman year that brought the heart and humor in equal measure. While it's likely to be a tight race to the finish line, mockumentary
Modern Family may have something to sing about.
What will win:
Modern Family
What should win:
Modern Family
Nominees:
Kyle Chandler (
Friday Night Lights)
Bryan Cranston (
Breaking Bad)
Matthew Fox (
Lost)
Michael C. Hall (
Dexter)
Jon Hamm (
Mad Men)
Hugh Laurie (
House)
Will Bryan Cranston make it a three-peat for his work on
Breaking Bad this season, the series' third? It certainly looks that way, despite some strong competition from
Lost's Matthew Fox for his gut-wrenching performance on the final season of
Lost (particularly his death scenes in the series finale.) Hall pulled off a masterful season in which he faced down the twisted Trinity killer, but Academy voters might find it tough to vote for an out-and-out serial killer. Hamm is up for his third shot at the award but, despite his talent and the complexity of the role, he makes playing Don Draper seem so easy, he may not click with voters. Chandler will likely walk away empty-handed as voters might see the nomination itself being enough recognition for FNL. Laurie is always a favorite, but Cranston's performance this year as the now in-remission Walter White, who this season embraced the way of the gun—not out of a need for survival but because he's been lured by easy money—is the performance to beat. Plus, Cranston won't be eligible for an Emmy nomination next year.
Who will win: Bryan Cranston
Who should win: Jon Hamm
Nominees:
Connie Britton (
Friday Night Lights)
Glenn Close (
Damages)
Mariska Hargitay (
Law & Order: SVU)
January Jones (
Mad Men)
Julianna Margulies (
The Good Wife)
Kyra Sedgwick (
The Closer)
Despite the high caliber of actresses competing here, it seems a foregone conclusion that Margulies will take home the award for her role as betrayed politician's wife Alicia Florick—who embarks on a law career and regains her balance—on CBS's
The Good Wife, one of the few breakout hits of the past television season and one that scored with audiences and critics alike. Close has already scored for
Damages in the past and January Jones might not gain too many votes from Academy members who see her turn as
Mad Men's icy Betty Draper as less of a lead and more of a supporting role. But, like Margulies,
Friday Night Lights' Britton has breathed life into a role that's far more than wife and mother, transforming plucky Tami Taylor into a crusading female icon who's just as tough as the football players in her life. Sadly, the cult favorite show—which airs on DirecTV and NBC—will likely prove to be too fringe for the Academy voters, a shame as Britton has turned in four seasons of dynamic and compelling performances.
Who will win: Julianna Margulies
Who should win: Connie Britton
Nominees:
Alec Baldwin (
30 Rock)
Steve Carell (
The Office)
Larry David (
Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Matthew Morrison (
Glee)
Jim Parsons (
The Big Bang Theory)
Tony Shalhoub (
Monk)
The one surprise inclusion here among the usual suspects is
Glee's Matthew Morrison, a strange choice as his Will Schuester is also
Glee's straight man by design. Carell still has one more year of eligibility before he leaves
The Office, so look for Academy voters to rain down praise upon him next year rather than this time around. Larry David cracked viewers up with his Seinfeld reunion opus but the fact that the season aired nearly a year ago means it could be out of sight, out of mind. Shalhoub may walk away with the award again in an upset, but the real race comes down to
30 Rock's Baldwin and
The Big Bang Theory's Jim Parsons. The Academy loves Jack Donaghy and Alec Baldwin, but the prize really should be handed to Parsons after a breakthrough season.
Who will win: Alec Baldwin
Who should win: Jim Parsons
Nominees:
Toni Collette (
United States of Tara)
Edie Falco (
Nurse Jackie)
Tina Fey (
30 Rock)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (
The New Adventures of Old Christine)
Lea Michele (
Glee)
Amy Poehler (
Parks and Recreation)
The nomination for Poehler marks the sole major nod for NBC's criminally undervalued
Parks and Recreation, which, in its second season, put both
The Office and
30 Rock to shame in the comedy department. Poehler's turn as the maniacally optimistic Leslie Knope is at least recognized here, but she'll have to cut through more than government red-tape to take home the win. Louis-Dreyfus, whose CBS sitcom was axed earlier this year, likely won't take home the statue, nor will drama queen Lea Michele. It's thought that the tightest race will be between Falco, for her stunning work as a drug-addicted caregiver and unfaithful wife on Showtime's dark comedy
Nurse Jackie, and go-to comedy lead Fey. While Fey has won handily in the past, this year seems to belong to Falco. Plus, the Academy loves the former Sopranos star, even without Carmela's Jersey hair and nails.
Who will win: Edie Falco
Who should win: Edie Falco
Nominees:
Andre Braugher (
Men of a Certain Age)
Michael Emerson (
Lost)
Terry O'Quinn (
Lost)
Aaron Paul (
Breaking Bad)
Martin Short (
Damages)
John Slattery (
Mad Men)
Despite a fantastic turn as the villainous Ray Winstone on FX's
Damages this past year, Martin Short remains the true dark horse in this race, while some might dismiss
Men of a Certain Age as less of a drama and more of a dramedy.
Breaking Bad's Aaron Paul is more than deserving of the win for his stunning work as Jesse Pinkman, who last season grappled with depression over the death of his girlfriend. But voters might choose to instead recognize Cranston, leaving Paul out in the cold. Which leaves Slattery, O'Quinn, and Emerson. While Emerson has dazzled in the past as Benjamin Linus, this wasn't a particularly sharp year for the character, who faded a bit into the background. More likely: O'Quinn will be recognized for the incredible work he did on Season Six of
Lost, where he played three characters: John Locke, an alternate John Locke (in limbo), and the evil island deity known as The Man in Black. Embodying three very different characters, O'Quinn nearly stole the final season of
Lost away from the sprawling ensemble cast.
Who will win: Terry O'Quinn
Who should win: Aaron Paul
Nominees:
Ty Burrell (
Modern Family)
Chris Colfer (
Glee)
Jon Cryer (
Two and a Half Men)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (
Modern Family)
Neil Patrick Harris (
How I Met Your Mother)
Eric Stonestreet (
Modern Family)
It's an embarrassment of riches for ABC's
Modern Family in this category, which can count three nominees among the contenders (although not Ed O'Neill, the sole adult actor from the family comedy who didn't snag a nod). Colfer's Kurt has remained a bright spot throughout the freshman season on
Glee, while Harris—nominated here for
How I Met Your Mother—has been just about everywhere this past year, turning up as a guest star, host, and musical director. Will the Academy give him the prize for a body of work rather than just his CBS sitcom? Cryer might experience some schadenfreude from the way that co-star Charlie Sheen's case played out. Which leaves the men of
Modern Family. While all three are more than deserving, the edge goes to Stonestreet, who had arguably the showiest role in flamboyant family man Cam. In the capable hands of Stonestreet, Cam is no caricature but rather a deeply nuanced character with whom we can't help—whether gay or straight—falling in love.
Who will win: Eric Stonestreet
Who should win: Eric Stonestreet
Nominees:
Christine Baranski (
The Good Wife)
Rose Byrne (
Damages)
Sharon Gless (
Burn Notice)
Christina Hendricks (
Mad Men)
Elisabeth Moss (
Mad Men)
Archie Panjabi (
The Good Wife)
CBS' breakout freshman drama hit
The Good Wife snagged quite a few acting nominations to go with its Outstanding Drama nod and rightly so: while Margulies might be the heart and center of the show, it's the outstanding ensemble surrounding her that has pushed the series into the public consciousness. No surprise then that both Baranski and Panjabi are competing together here, though the edge goes to Baranski; she's an actor the Academy loves to give statues to, after taking home more than a few for her work over the years on CBS's Cybill. She does face competition, though, from Moss (though this wasn't Peggy's best year on
Mad Men), Gless, and Byrne (who rocked on
Damages this season.) However, the Academy should pay especial attention to Hendricks, who delivered a heartbreaking performance on
Mad Men this past season as the fiery Joan Harris (née Holloway) who discovered she had become trapped in someone else's ideal of a perfect marriage before reclaiming some power as the office manager of Don Draper's newly formed agency.
Who will win: Christine Baranski
Who should win: Christina Hendricks
Nominees:
Julie Bowen (
Modern Family)
Jane Krakowski (
30 Rock)
Jane Lynch (
Glee)
Holland Taylor (
Two and a Half Men)
Sofia Vergara (
Modern Family)
Kristen Wiig (Burn NoticeSaturday Night Live
)
While all of the women assembled here are extremely capable comedic actresses, this category wholly belongs to
Glee's Jane Lynch. As the nefarious Cheerios coach Sue Sylvester, Lynch quickly pushed the character into the zeitgeist thanks to her impenetrable sneer, caustic lines of dialogue, array of rainbow-colored tracksuits, and a volatile manner that injected the musical-comedy with a mean streak of unpredictability. Much of
Glee's humor comes solely from Lynch's ability to nail every line she's given, whether it's a crack about Will's curly hair or living with hepatitis, each one a masterful verbal attack intended to disarm and disembowel her victims—and make the audience roar with laughter in the process. No doubt about it: this is Lynch's opportunity to add an Emmy to her already overstuffed trophy case.
Who will win: Jane Lynch
Who should win: Jane Lynch
