Ukraine’s constant drone bombardment of Russia has severely depleted the country’s oil-refining capabilities.
For several months, Kyiv has launched wave after wave of drone strikes targeting Russia’s oil refineries, which are vital for funding President Vladimir Putin’s invasion efforts.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has now downgraded its baseline outlook for Russian oil processing over the next 18 months to 4 million barrels a day, down 30 percent from levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. In its monthly oil report, the IEA cited Kyiv’s drone strikes as a key reason for the deterioration in Russia’s oil-refining industry.
“It now appears likely that the persistent drone strikes and the patchwork nature of repairs are having a cumulative negative effect and degrading the refining system,” the IEA said, via Bloomberg.
The report adds that international sanctions against the Russian energy industry amid the now four-and-a-half-year invasion have made it harder for the Kremlin to repair damaged infrastructure or replace equipment.
This issue has been exacerbated as Ukraine has significantly increased its long-range drone capabilities, meaning it can hit deeper into Russian territory, as well as the frequency and accuracy of its attacks.
“Ukrainian forces are using multiple drone waves against single sites, overwhelming protective netting and air defences,” the report said. “The targeting also appears more precise.”
Russia has already been experiencing crippling fuel shortages as Ukraine repeatedly targets the country’s oil refineries, resulting in long lines at gas pumps.
Ukraine struck at least 22 oil refineries across Russia in August, the largest monthly total since the war broke out, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
The IEA warned that it has only offered a “more cautious assessment” and that the true extent of the problems surrounding Russia’s refining complex could be even worse.
“Longer lead times to source replacement parts and the approach of colder weather could compound the stress placed on the Russian system,” the report states.
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv had targeted “eight Russian infrastructure facilities that support the war” over a 24-hour period, including an oil refinery in the Yamalo-Nenets region.
“Russia continues its terror against Ukraine every day. And every day, it receives a just response. Thank you to every warrior, to everyone ensuring our long-range capability and accuracy,” Zelensky posted on X.
