Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s odds of being canned by President Donald Trump have reached an all-time high.
The embattled Noem is now listed on Kalshi as having a 43 percent chance of being the first Cabinet secretary fired—a 38.4 percent increase from her odds on Dec. 1, prior to her launch of “Operation Metro Surge” in Minnesota.
A pair of horrific killings in Minneapolis—one by ICE, the other by CBP—has spiked Noem’s odds past Attorney General Pam Bondi (16 percent), who has bungled the release of the Epstein files, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer (12 percent), who is embroiled in a sex scandal involving her bodyguard.
Noem has desperately tried to pin her department’s heartless, lie-filled response to the killing of Veterans Affairs nurse Alex Pretti—whom she suggested was a domestic terrorist—on poor guidance from the White House’s Stephen Miller. Miller has countered that his insane stance on the killing was based on information he received from Noem’s department.
ICE’s killing of Renee Nicole Good on Jan. 7 briefly spiked Noem’s odds of being fired, but only to 13.9 percent.
In the first shooting, Trump, 79, parroted the DHS version of events—that Good deliberately ran over ICE agent Jonathan Ross, despite video clearly showing that was a lie. The president has shied away from doing the same to justify Pretti’s killing despite Noem claiming he intended to massacre federal agents.
A senior administration official told the Daily Beast that Noem is now “clearly trying to throw Miller under the bus, but does Kristi really want to go to war with Stephen?”
The former South Dakota governor’s spin has done little to improve her odds of keeping her job, according to prediction markets. Polymarket now lists her as the clear favorite with a 56 percent chance of leaving the administration by the end of the year.
Lawmakers, including Republican senators like North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, have called on Noem to resign or be fired.
Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has repeatedly demanded the same.
“I think Kristi Noem probably should go back to South Dakota, not have any dogs, and just kind of ride things out,” he said Tuesday, referring to Noem proudly bragging in 2024 that she once fatally shot her 14-month-old wirehair pointer, Cricket, for acting like a puppy.
Trump’s announcement of a leadership change in the Minnesota operation—from Border Patrol’s Greg Bovino, who has been shipped back to his rural California border town, to Border Czar Tom Homan—also does not bode well for Noem, sources tell the Beast.
“Homan taking control is a disaster for Noem,” a Department of Homeland Security official said, adding that Homan will take a more low-key approach than the publicity-obsessed Noem, 54, and the soon-to-be-retired Bovino, who is 55.
Homan is expected to conduct targeted raids of migrants with criminal records, as opposed to Bovino and Noem’s strategy of mass sweeps of diverse neighborhoods and apartment buildings.
Noem’s gaffes in Minnesota are not the first time she has reportedly angered the White House.
The president was annoyed by her ordering of work-site raids that hammered businesses, including one at a Hyundai plant. He also expressed displeasure with her heavy-handed control of FEMA grantmaking, The New York Times reported.
