CrosswordNewsletters
DAILY BEAST
ALL
  • Cheat Sheet
  • Obsessed
  • Politics
  • Crime
  • Entertainment
  • Media
  • Innovation
  • Opinion
  • World
  • U.S. News
  • Scouted
CHEAT SHEET
    POLITICS
    • Fever Dreams
    • Biden World
    • Elections
    • Opinion
    • National Security
    • Congress
    • Pay Dirt
    • The New Abnormal
    • Right Richter
    • Trumpland
    MEDIA
    • Confider
    • Daytime Talk
    • Late-Night
    • Fox News
    U.S. NEWS
    • Identities
    • Crime
    • Race
    • LGBT
    • Extremism
    • Coronavirus
    WORLD
    • Russia
    • Europe
    • China
    • Middle East
    INNOVATION
    • Science
    TRAVEL
      ENTERTAINMENT
      • TV
      • Movies
      • Music
      • Comedy
      • Sports
      • Sex
      • TDBs Obsessed
      • Awards Shows
      • The Last Laugh
      CULTURE
      • Power Trip
      • Fashion
      • Books
      • Royalist
      TECH
      • Disinformation
      SCOUTED
      • Clothing
      • Technology
      • Beauty
      • Home
      • Pets
      • Kitchen
      • Fitness
      • I'm Looking For
      BEST PICKS
      • Best VPNs
      • Best Gaming PCs
      • Best Air Fryers
      COUPONS
      • Vistaprint Coupons
      • Ulta Coupons
      • Office Depot Coupons
      • Adidas Promo Codes
      • Walmart Promo Codes
      • H&M Coupons
      • Spanx Promo Codes
      • StubHub Promo Codes
      Products
      NewslettersPodcastsCrosswordsSubscription
      FOLLOW US
      GOT A TIP?

      SEARCH

      HOMEPAGE
      0

      Intrade: An Ohio Story

      Why is Intrade so (relatively) cautious? It may be the story of just one state

      Matthew Zeitlin

      Updated Jul. 14, 2017 2:02AM ET / Published Nov. 05, 2012 5:23PM ET 

      Carolyn Kaster

      A consensus is emerging. The national and state polls, the aggregators and model-makers, and many of the mainstream pundits willing to make a stand (except The Washington Post’s horse-racing columnist) are starting to converge. President Obama is likely to eke out a popular vote victory and a win the electoral college. Nate Silver puts the likelihood of an Obama victory at 86.3 percent. The poll average at Real Clear Politics average puts Obama at a 48.5-48.1 advantage, and gives the incumbent 303 electoral votes to Romney’s 235.

      But what about Intrade, the electronic betting market that is supposed to be a true aggregator of the all good knowledge there is about the outcome of a future event? If anyone should heed the quantitative modelers, it’s the bettors, right? (After all, Nate Silver used to be a professional poker player.)

      Right now, Intrade has the odds of an Obama victory at around 66 percent. That makes him a solid favorite, but not an overwhelming one. The Intrade crowd gives Romney a one-in-three chance of winning on Tuesday. And as any baseball player will note, one out of three isn’t bad.

      Why the (relative) caution? One possible explanation is that when people have real money on the line—and some Intrade users have substantial amounts in play—they become risk averse. That may make them more likely to, collectively, hew to a more moderate path when giving odds on the election. On the other hand, hitching your wagon to Silver and other state-poll aggregators might seem like a way to tip the odds in your favor.

      Perhaps another explanation is that in the last dying days of the election, there has been a realization among Intraders that Ohio is really going to determine the election. If the winner of the Buckeye State is going to win the election, then the odds of Obama winning the election should more or less match the odds of him winning Ohio. As the chart above shows, this correlation has held true more of less since at least the beginning of June. The polls in Ohio show a narrow but solid Obama lead.

      But that doesn’t explain the relative caution on Obama’s chances we’re currently seeing. In the past five months, there have been very few sustained days where Obama’s Ohio odds and his reelection odds have significantly gapped out. They’ve closely tracked each other the entire time. While the betting market may be getting the relationship right, it could very well be selling Obama’s chances short in Ohio. We’ll find out soon enough.

      READ THIS LIST

      DAILY BEAST
      • Cheat Sheet
      • Politics
      • Entertainment
      • Media
      • World
      • Innovation
      • U.S. News
      • Scouted
      • Travel
      • Subscription
      • Crossword
      • Newsletters
      • Podcasts
      • About
      • Contact
      • Tips
      • Jobs
      • Advertise
      • Help
      • Privacy
      • Code of Ethics & Standards
      • Diversity
      • Terms & Conditions
      • Copyright & Trademark
      • Sitemap
      • Best Picks
      • Coupons
      • Coupons:
      • Dick's Sporting Goods Coupons
      • HP Coupon Codes
      • Chewy Promo Codes
      • Nordstrom Rack Coupons
      • NordVPN Coupons
      • JCPenny Coupons
      • Nordstrom Coupons
      • Samsung Promo Coupons
      • Home Depot Coupons
      • Hotwire Promo Codes
      • eBay Coupons
      • Ashley Furniture Promo Codes
      © 2023 The Daily Beast Company LLC