Jinx-fearing Democrats won’t heave a sigh of relief, but the newest batch of national polls does show their man with about a seven-point lead over McCain. Nate Silver notes, however, that “candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points.” His model shows Obama winning in Iowa, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, among other battlegrounds. McCain’s only chance of a victory, according to Silver? The Bradley Effect: “McCain’s chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.”
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