Republicans are panicking as they’re hit with a series of brutal warnings of a Democratic Party surge heading into the midterms.
On Wednesday, the Cook Political Report shifted three Senate race ratings—Georgia, Kansas, and even South Carolina—toward Democrats with less than six weeks before Election Day.
At the same time, new polling shows Democrats gaining an edge over Republicans in two other states where Donald Trump won three times in presidential elections.
The Democratic momentum comes as the president is deep underwater with Americans on the economy.
With energy prices soaring, some battleground candidates are hitting the panic button on Trump’s Iran war while others distance themselves from the president.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Georgia Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” as Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff fends off a challenge by MAGA Rep. Mike Collins.
It also moved the Kansas Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” as GOP Senator Roger Marshall fights to hold onto the seat. If Adam Hamilton flips it blue, he would be the first Democrat to win a Kansas Senate seat in nearly a century.
Then there’s Trump’s handpicked Senator Darline Graham, who is running for a full term in South Carolina. While Republicans remain better positioned to hold that seat, the race rating has shifted from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” on Wednesday.
Democrats once faced an unfriendly-looking Senate map heading into the 2026 midterms because so many red states had senators up for reelection, but the Cook Political Report called winning the Senate majority at this stage a “true coin flip.”
At the same time, a new Maris Poll just out showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. Talarico polled at 50 percent while Paxton was at 44 percent.
Talarico received 55 percent among Independent voters, a 20-point edge over Paxton, who was polling at just 35 percent among Independents.
It comes one day after Marist found Democrat Josh Turek with an eight-point edge over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race.
The shifting landscape has led more Republicans to distance themselves from the Trump administration.
On Tuesday evening, Hinson called for the House to return to Washington, D.C. to address skyrocketing costs due to Trump’s Iran war. The House is not slated to return until after the midterms.
In a post on X, the Iowa Senate candidate argued they should “work to pause diesel exports, suspend the gas tax, fully unleash E15 and biodiesel, and work on a diesel relief program for truckers and farmers.”
Hinson, who also skipped a visit by Vice President JD Vance to her state on Friday, was immediately blasted by critics who pointed out she voted against ending the Iran war multiple times.
Hinson was one of several Republicans sounding the alarm on the war this week.
Republican Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers shot a video in a grocery store about higher prices where he also pushed for the war’s end.
“The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly,” Rogers said to camera while standing in a produce section.
Rogers said when the war ends, energy prices will plummet, but in the meantime, he called for the suspension of federal and state gas taxes as well as an embargo on diesel exports.
GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan also called for a temporary pause in American diesel exports on Tuesday, calling the price “too damn high.” The Alaska Republican is fighting to hold onto a Senate seat in a tight race against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.
Ohio Republican Senator Jon Husted, who is facing a tough race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, also told Politico this week that the war “needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices.”
Democrats need to pick up four seats in November to take the Senate majority. But they’re even more optimistic about flipping the House.
A series of House Republicans have recently touted their ability to work across the aisle as the president remains toxic and have rushed to distance themselves from Trump’s war.
Iowa Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who are both in tough races, were among the seven Republicans who joined Democrats in voting for a resolution to end the Iran war before the House skipped town.
A growing number of Republicans have started scrubbing the president’s image and endorsements from their websites despite Trump urging supporters to pretend he’s on the ballot.
In Florida, MAGA Rep. Byron Donalds was the latest Republican to remove images of him with Trump that were plastered across his campaign website for governor. He also noticeably cut down the mentions of Trump’s endorsements, even as a campaign official argued Trump’s endorsement was worth its weight in gold.
More than a handful of other GOP candidates have put distance between themselves and Trump with changes to their campaign websites in recent weeks, including House candidate Ralph Alvarado and Senate candidate Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky, House candidate Mike Bouchard in Michigan, Rep. Nick Begich seeking reelection in Alaska, and California Reps. Young Kim and James Gallagher.
Then there was Republican Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who recently dropped a campaign ad calling out some of Trump’s immigration crackdown as “going too far” while standing in front of the White House.
