A massive red flag has emerged for Republicans in Texas.
CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, revealed Wednesday that Democrats are voting in the state’s primaries at a higher rate than Republicans—something that has not occurred in over two decades.
Enten said the development has left him “mind blown.”
As of Wednesday morning, 53 percent of the ballots submitted in Texas have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for the remaining 47 percent. Enten said that is a stark difference from the last midterms—in 2022—when just 38 percent of ballots at this stage were cast by Democrats.
Enten said the difference between ballots cast “hasn’t been close” since 2002. The shift also comes as Democrats have massively overperformed in off-year and special elections since President Donald Trump ushered in utter chaos when he retook office in January 2025.
“What a shift from where we were four years ago,” Enten continued. “At this point, more people in Texas are picking up the Democratic ballot.”
Such a trend could spell trouble for Republicans not just in Texas but nationwide.
Enten noted that in previous midterm years—2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022—a larger primary turnout coincided with which party won control of the House, currently a slim GOP majority.
“Still a close race, but given that Republicans have been so out-voting Democrats in Texas, the idea that more people could actually vote on the Democrat side in Texas?” Enten said. “Again, as I said at the top, whoa!”
There has been plenty of national attention on races in Texas this winter.
Lone Star voters are currently casting ballots for governor, a Senate seat, and high-profile House races—like that for the married Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who is embroiled in a sex scandal involving an ex-aide who took her own life in September.
Early voting in Texas began on Feb. 17, and Election Day is Tuesday, March 3.
