Sen. Mitch McConnell’s absence from work has reached the 80-day mark—but bettors are less confident than ever that he will actually resign.
The odds of McConnell stepping down before the Nov. 3 midterms have cratered to just seven percent on the prediction market Kalshi, which has accepted millions in wagers on whether the 84-year-old senior senator from Kentucky will still be in office come Election Day.
That is more than 40 percentage points below the peak odds for McConnell’s resignation.
That peak was in February, when Kalshi pegged his chance of resigning by the midterms at 48.8 percent. That spike followed McConnell checking himself into a Washington-area hospital on Feb. 2 with flu-like symptoms.
McConnell’s mysterious new health scare, which has kept him from working for more than two-and-a-half months, briefly spiked his odds of resigning again. They rose as high as 34.8 percent on July 7, when McConnell was hospitalized and had yet to release any update on his condition, but dropped sharply to a 12.3 percent chance after he shared a proof-of-life photo on July 12 that suggested, despite his clearly declining health, that he was intent on remaining in office.
His odds of resigning have steadily fallen ever since, bottoming out on Aug. 25 at six percent.
McConnell’s office—run by his chief of staff Terry Carmack, who refuses to answer questions on his boss’s condition despite raking in a salary of more than $226,000—has repeatedly puzzled the public with its bizarre updates about the senator.
His office claims he did not suffer “a heart attack or a stroke,” despite a 911 call mentioning cardiac arrest on June 14. McConnell’s first statement about his health said he was taken to the hospital after a fall and was “briefly unconscious,” adding that he subsequently “had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia” while recovering.
McConnell has since been released from the hospital and a rehabilitation facility, but he has not returned to work—or been recorded speaking on camera.
The last time news cameras captured McConnell was in early June. The octogenarian did not appear to be in good health then, spending a sizable portion of a 20-hour vote-a-rama session on the Senate floor frozen in place.
C-SPAN cameras showed McConnell remaining almost motionless while his colleagues spoke, moved, and laughed all around him. He was sitting beside an aide who often pushes McConnell in a wheelchair. Outside of a few feeble hand raises, it’s not clear how much of what was going on he comprehended.
The public is yet to hear from McConnell directly, and sporadic updates have only deepened the mystery about his condition. CNN’s MAGA pundit Scott Jennings and other Republicans claim to be speaking to him about policy, and his office has issued three statements supposedly written by him. He has also released two photographs of him smiling with his wife, Elaine Chao, in nearly identical poses, propped up in a hospital bed in jeans and a button-down shirt without an IV.
McConnell has served in the Senate since 1985, making him one of the longest-serving lawmakers in U.S. history. Since 2023, he has suffered multiple falls and had several publicized instances in which he appeared to freeze while speaking.
