Predix

Nate Silver Calls the Oscars

Software says Rourke and Winslet are locks.

After reliably predicting almost every political race this year, statistics wunderkind Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com fame has turned his eye—and fancy software—to the Academy Awards. He built a database bursting with 30 years of Oscar history, including box office tallies, awards earned, and the Academy’s favorite genres (sorry, Robert Downey Jr.—the older-skewing cadre are not comedy fans). Heath Ledger’s a lock, as is Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler, while Kate Winslet, with Silver’s 67.6 percent calculation, will likely take home the Best Actress trophy for The Reader. Slumdog Millionaire, fresh off its wins, well, everywhere, appears poised to add to its trophy case and sweep Best Director and Picture—according to Silver, it’s a veritable lock at 99.7 percent.