FLASHING RED LIGHTS

New Study Sounds Alarm for Dems Running in Swing States

The findings could spell trouble for the Democratic Party in 28 congressional districts.

Republicans are snapping up voters while Democrats grapple with steep losses in battleground districts, a new study has revealed.

Democrats have lost more than 275,000 registered voters across 28 congressional districts viewed as general election battlegrounds—an average of 10,000 voters per district—between November 2024 and May this year, according to an analysis by the National Republican Congressional Committee obtained by NOTUS.

The Democratic Party saw the sharpest falls in areas like North Carolina’s 1st congressional district, Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district, and Iowa’s 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts. In Maine, the 2nd congressional district alone has seen the Democrats lose more than 23,000 registered voters in the past year and a half.

Though partisan registrations don’t automatically dictate how Americans will vote, Republicans celebrated the study’s findings.

“The battleground map keeps moving in Republicans’ direction, and this data shows House Democrats are running out of places to hide,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella told NOTUS. “Republicans are welcoming voters with open arms, expanding the electorate, and building long-term strength in swing districts while Democrats continue losing ground cycle after cycle.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meanwhile, brushed off the study while blasting “delusional hacks” across the aisle.

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“Republicans are being rejected in election after election since Trump returned to the White House—and Democrats are overperforming by double digits," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement.

“In primaries across the country this year, Democrats are turning out at levels consistently dwarfing the turnout in Republican primaries,” he added. “Incomplete, cherry-picked data by the delusional hacks at the NRCC won’t change the reality on the ground: Democrats have the momentum, formidable candidates with cross-party appeal, and—most importantly—the American people on our side. We will take back the House majority in November.”

The Daily Beast has also reached out to the NRCC for comment.

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The NRCC analysis doesn’t include battleground districts in states that don’t have partisan registration, such as Texas or Wisconsin. In states like Pennsylvania, Democrats have reversed their registration trend for the first time in years by logging voter gains.

The study also found that after the 2020 election, Democrats enjoyed a 733,000 voter-registration advantage over Republicans in the same 28 congressional districts. Nearly six years later, however, the party has lost 737,000 voters.

But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be smooth sailing for the Republicans. The party still needs to overcome the unpopularity of President Donald Trump’s agenda, with polls finding resounding rejection of the administration’s economic and foreign policy moves.

Last week, Trump’s approval rating sank to a new low of -25 as Americans struggled to afford groceries while watching the government wage war on Iran.

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