1.
The Social Network
2.
Black Swan
3.
The King's Speech
4.
The Fighter
5.
Inception
6.
Toy Story 3
7.
True Grit
8.
The Kids Are All Right
9.
Winter's Bone
10.
Blue Valentine
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Despite incessant buzz that the Best Picture race is a showdown between
The Social Network and
The King's Speech, our data show
Black Swan—a film that has divided audiences, critics, and Academy members alike—giving David Fincher's Facebook drama a run for its money. Also interesting: the inclusion of the shoestring-budget indie
Blue Valentine.
Don't Count Out:
Rabbit Hole,
127 Hours.
1. Colin Firth, (
The King's Speech)
2. Jesse Eisenberg (
The Social Network)
3. James Franco (
127 Hours)
4. Ryan Gosling (
Blue Valentine)
5. Jeff Bridges (True Grit
)
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Colin Firth continues to hold his lead in this race for his pitch-perfect portrayal of King George VI, giving this race the feeling of a lock. Still, Jesse Eisenberg has been gaining momentum and is now toe-to-toe with James Franco as a runner-up. Dark-horse surprises that could come from behind in the coming weeks are Robert Duvall (
Get Low) and Aaron Eckhart (
Rabbit Hole).
Don't Count Out: Robert Duvall (
Get Low), Javier Bardem (Biutiful
), Aaron Eckhart (
Rabbit Hole).
1. Christian Bale (
The Fighter)
2. Geoffrey Rush (
The King's Speech)
3. Andrew Garfield (
The Social Network)
4. Jeremy Renner (
The Town)
5. Mark Ruffalo (
The Kids Are All Right)
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Christian Bale is a heavy favorite in this race, having caught up to and surpassed Geoffrey Rush, who last fall dominated the Best Supporting Actor buzz. Garfield, Renner, and Ruffalo don't seem to be posing much of a threat at this stage, though could be unseated from the list by dark horse John Hawkes (
Winter's Bone).
Don't Count Out: John Hawkes (
Winter's Bone), Matt Damon (
True Grit)
1. Natalie Portman (
Black Swan)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (
Winter's Bone)
3. Annette Bening (
The Kids Are All Right)
4. Nicole Kidman (
Rabbit Hole)
5. Michelle Williams (
Blue Valentine)
WHAT THIS MEANS:
This race has long been assumed to be a fight between Natalie Portman and Annette Bening, but newcomer Jennifer Lawrence is shaking things up quite dramatically, with a slight edge over Bening. Otherwise no surprises, though Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams should watch out for Lesley Manville and Tilda Swinton, who are nipping at their heels.
Don't Count Out: Lesley Manville (
Another Year), Tilda Swinton (
I Am Love).
1. Melissa Leo (
The Fighter)
2. Jacki Weaver (
Animal Kingdom)
3. Amy Adams (
The Fighter)
4. Helena Bonham Carter (
The King's Speech)
5. Mila Kunis (
Black Swan)
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Melissa Leo is another probable lock in what is probably the most competitive category, though Jacki Weaver has been gaining support, and at this point is head-to-head with Amy Adams in the No. 2 slot. Meanwhile, Helena Bonham Carter, once assumed to be a lock in this category, is losing her hold. The one to keep an eye on in the wings: newcomer Hailee Steinfeld, the brassy star of
True Grit. And Mila Kunis, a very dark horse at this point, could work her way up higher on the list.
Don't Count Out: Julianne Moore (
The Kids Are All Right), Dianne Wiest (
Rabbit Hole), Sissy Spacek (
Get Low), Hailee Steinfeld (
True Grit).
1. Darren Aronofsky (
Black Swan)
2. Joel & Ethan Coen (
True Grit)
3. David O. Russell (
The Fighter)
4. David Fincher (
The Social Network)
5. Lee Unkrich (
Toy Story 3)
WHAT THIS MEANS:
This category will likely see some movement, particularly considering the Academy’s divisive reaction to
Black Swan.
True Grit directors Joel and Ethan Coen, whom the DGA snubbed, are seemingly beloved by everyone else. Another eye-brow-raiser:
Toy Story 3 director Lee Unkrich coming in ahead of Tom Hooper (
The Kings Speech) and Christopher Nolan (
Inception).
1.
Toy Story 3
2.
The Ilusionist
3.
Tangled
4.
How to Train Your Dragon
5.
Despicable Me
WHAT THIS MEANS:
The biggest no-brainer of the entire race is that
Toy Story 3 will win Best Animated Feature. Per tradition, Pixar reigns in this category, with a film that is considered the studio's all-time best and that had audiences and critics shedding tears last summer. All the other contenders are basically just noise.
1.
Exit Through the Gift Shop
2.
Waiting for Superman
3.
Restrepo
4.
Inside Job
5.
The Tillman Story
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Despite early talk that this category was a race between
Waiting for Superman and
Inside Job, the Banksy doc
Exit Through the Gift Shop has shot ahead in recent weeks and is holding on mightily. Another unexpected twist is
Restrepo, which is back in the conversation, threatening to overtake
Superman.
1.
The Social Network
2.
Toy Story 3
3.
True Grit
4.
Winter's Bone
5.
The Town
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Aaron Sorkin's kinetic screenplay is a heavy favorite in this race and unlikely to be threatened. But
True Grit may pull ahead, particularly if it fares less well in the Best Picture and Best Director races. Ben Affleck's
The Town, meanwhile, may drop out in favor of dark horses like
Rabbit Hole and
127 Hours.
Don't Count Out:
Rabbit Hole,
127 Hours.
1.
Inception
2.
The King's Speech
3.
Black Swan
4.
The Kids Are All Right
5.
Another Year
WHAT THIS MEANS:
This may be
Inception's best bet in terms of major Oscar wins, but at this point it is still in danger of being overtaken by
The King's Speech. Surprising here is that
The Kids Are All Right is so low on the list. Unsurprising: that James L. Brooks' panned
How Do You Know? did not make the cut.
