1.
The Social Network +22.0%
2.
Black Swan -3.1%
3.
The King's Speech -1.3%
4.
The Fighter -2.5%
5.
Inception -5.6%
6.
Toy Story 3 +3.3%
7.
127 Hrs -10.7%
8.
The Kids Are All Right +1.2%
9.
True Grit -19.0%
10.
Winter's Bone -17.7%
What This Means:
The Social Network's domination of the Golden Globes—including its Best Picture win in the Drama category—solidifies its top spot as the Best Picture favorite. What films did and didn't receive love at the Globes also affected other pictures in this category, with
True Grit and
Winter's Bone losing substantial steam, and
Blue Valentine slipping out of the race completely. The big comeback story this week:
127 Hours.
1. Colin Firth (
King's Speech) +20.4%
2. Jesse Eisenberg (
The Social Network) -9.6%
3. James Franco (
127 Hours) -13.4%
4. Ryan Gosling (
Blue Valentine) -6.0%
5. Mark Wahlberg (
The Fighter) +6.1%
What This Means: Another relatively unchanged line-up, only that Colin Firth's lead is growing ever more forceful, having taken home both a Golden Globe and BFCA award last weekend. The one big surprise here is that
The Fighter's Mark Wahlberg has entered the running, displacing
True Grit's Jeff Bridges.
1. Natalie Portman (
Black Swan) +20.4%
2. Annette Bening (
The Kids Are All Right) +4.4%
3. Jennifer Lawrence (
Winter's Bone) -24.1%
4. Nicole Kidman (
Rabbit Hole) -15.5%
5. Michelle Williams (
Blue Valentine) -11.1%
What This Means: Thanks to the Globes, which awarded both Annette Bening and Natalie Portman acting awards, this race is back to a showdown between
The Kids Are All Right and
Black Swan star—sorry, Jennifer Lawrence. Though at this point Portman, who also won at the BFCAs, has a strong, and perhaps unbeatable, lead. Lawrence, Kidman, and Williams, meanwhile, are all losing steady steam.
1. Christian Bale, (
The Fighter) +17.4%
2. Geoffrey Rush (
King's Speech) -14.9%
3. Andrew Garfield (
The Social Network) -7.0%
4. Jeremy Renner (
The Town) -6.1%
5. Mark Ruffalo (
The Kids Are All Right) -17.2%
What This Means: This is one of those races that is starting to look like a shoe-in, with the Oscar Bale's to lose. Geoffrey Rush, who at one point was predicted to be a front-runner, has fallen substantially, buzz-wise, but should hang on to the No. 2 spot, given the love for
The King's Speech. Someone we may not be seeing next week: Mark Ruffalo.
1. Melissa Leo (
The Fighter) +18.7%
2. Amy Adams (
The Fighter) -8.5%
3. Jacki Weaver (
Animal Kingdom) -12.9%
4. Helena Bonham Carter (
The King's Speech) -6.1%
5. Mila Kunis (
Black Swan) -3.2%
What This Means: Golden Globe winner Melissa Leo still reigns, while
Animal Kingdom's Jacki Weaver takes a small tumble, and is overtaken by Leo's co-star Amy Adams. But Leo looks solid. This is another category that shouldn't prove much of a fight, seeing as all of Leo's contenders, Adams included, are trailing behind rather significantly.
1. Darren Aronofsky, (
Black Swan) -7.5%
2. David Fincher, (
The Social Network) +21.5%
3. Coen Brothers, (
True Grit) -15.4%
4. David O.Russell, (
The Fighter) -3.2%
5. Lee Unkrich, (
Toy Story 3) -4.4%
What This Means:
Black Swan director Darren Aronofsky remains in the lead—but just barely. David Fincher's Globe win has pushed him up in the rankings so that he's nipping at Aronofsky's heels. The biggest surprise here is the absence of Tom Hooper (
The King's Speech), and the fact that Lee Unkrich and the Coen Bros. are still hanging on, despite a drop in buzz. Unsurprising is that David O. Russell has joined the group, following a strange absence last week.
1.
Toy Story 3 +17.4%
2.
How to Train Your Dragon -7.1%
3.
Tangled -5.8%
4.
The Illusionist -7.5%
5.
Despicable Me -5.8%
What This Means: The only interesting thing about this race is exactly how badly all the non-Pixar films are trailing
Toy Story 3, the shoe-in winner.
How to Train Your Dragon and
The Illusionist saw the biggest drops in buzz this week, while
Tangled and
Despicable Me also dipped, but less substantially. Of the below-the-radar films, coming in dead last is
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole.
1.
Waiting for Superman +19.0%
2.
Exit Through the Gift Shop -7.0%
3.
Inside Job -1.1%
4.
Restrepo -3.5%
5.
The Tillman Story -5.0%
What This Means: Bolstered by its win at the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards,
Waiting for Superman overtook
Exit Through the Gift Shop to regain its lead in this race. Otherwise, this category remains relatively unchanged, with
Inside Job posing the biggest threat to
Superman in the coming weeks.
1.
The Social Network +4.3%
2.
Toy Story 3 +0.9%
3.
True Grit +3.2%
4.
127 Hrs +4.3%
5.
Winter's Bone -15.7%
What This Means:
The Social Network retains its solid lead, and should remain unchallenged throughout the rest of the race. The biggest drop in buzz this week was
Winter's Bone. The biggest rise:
127 Hours, which last week did not even crack the top five.
1.
Inception +1.0%
2.
The King's Speech +4.5%
3.
Black Swan +3.8%
4.
The Kids Are All Right -9.2%
5.
Another Year -6.0%
What This Means: This category is mostly unchanged from last week, with
Inception remaining in the lead, but still vulnerable to a takeover by
The King's Speech, which took home the BFCA award for Best Original Screenplay. The films that have dropped the most significantly buzz-wise are
The Kids Are All Right and
Another Year.
