This thriller about a bomb squad in Iraq has already received a Golden Globe nomination and been honored by virtually every film critics association in America. It’s also a war movie directed by a woman (Kathryn Bigelow), which is a rare feat in Hollywood. Whether The Hurt Locker is commercial enough to win—it has grossed only $12 million at the box office—is an open question. The film tackles big issues (a plus with the Academy) but it doesn’t have the kind of heartwarming ending that tends to go over big come awards time. Nevertheless, the hipper, more sophisticated wing of the Academy is gaga for it, and it’s unquestionably a quality film. It will certainly be nominated.
Summit Entertainment
Jason Reitman’s dramedy about a man who goes around the country laying people off is everything the Academy loves—a critically acclaimed movie about current events with big star power (George Clooney), and decent box office. It’s currently at around $50 million at the box office and may well earn $100 million all in. This may not be Avatar-level success, but it’s enough for an Oscar nomination.
Dale Robinette / Paramount Pictures
Based on the novel Push by Sapphire, Lee Daniels’ film is the story of a young black girl from a Welfare home whose mother beats her and whose father rapes her, yet winds up triumphing in spite of it. It’s still a gritty film—perhaps too difficult to actually win, but like Hurt Locker it’s in there. Consider Oscar slot No. 3 gone.
Lionsgate
Another lock for an Oscar nomination. James Cameron’s sci-fi epic has grossed more than $350 million in less than two weeks. Critics have faulted the film’s slightly clunky script (and its equally clunky political message). But it won’t matter—at least not where a nomination is concerned. Visually, it’s a masterpiece, a game changer, and as several of Oscar voters pointed out, the Academy has always had a tin ear when it comes to what a good script is. It’s Crash and Star Wars rolled into one. How could it not be nominated?
Twentieth Century Fox
Back in August, when Quentin Tarantino’s World War II film was released, few would have predicted an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Yes, audiences loved it and Christoph Waltz seemed like a lock for a Best Supporting Actor nomination (most indications are that Waltz will win). But the film—a pulp revenge fantasy about a group of Jewish soldiers who scalp and kill Nazis—wasn’t exactly typical Academy fare. (At the film’s New York Premiere, Tarantino announced the picture by saying “Are you ready to see some bastards fuck up some Nazis? I can’t hear you, motherfuckers.”).
What a difference five months can make. With a dearth of critically acclaimed films, the bulk of voters surveyed indicated that
Basterds will indeed be making their top 10.
Historically, animated films have had a bad time at the Oscars, but there’s very little competition this year. With a 98 (out of 100) on Rotten Tomatoes, the movie from Pixar has been perhaps the studio’s best-reviewed effort since Toy Story. Almost all Academy votes interviewed said Up would be in their top five—and a few even indicated that they’d likely be voting for it as their top choice for Best Picture. Since the Academy uses a weighted ballot system—and since Precious, The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air seem to be competing for similar voters— Up seems to have a real chance at winning. It’s also high time Pixar walked away with a major award, after two years in which they were grossly overlooked in the Best Picture category, first with Ratatouille and then with Wall-E.
Disney / Pixar
Slot No. 7 is where things start to get dicey. This lower budget film about a girl in 1960s suburban London who gets involved with a con artist is going into the awards season with considerable steam. Its star, Carey Mulligan, has already taken home the National Board of Review’s award for Best Actress, the film’s gotten stellar reviews, and more than half of the voters surveyed say they will be placing it on their all-important top 10 list. Still, there’s a considerable block of the Academy that hasn’t seen it and another that has and felt Mulligan’s performance was more memorable than the actual picture. Right now, An Education has about a 75 percent chance of being nominated—and is the first film on the list without a real chance of winning the Oscar.
Sony Pictures Classics
The good news? People who have seen the Coen brothers’ black comedy about a Jewish family in 1960s Minneapolis really seem to love it. The bad news? Not enough people are actually seeing it. There’s been some gossip in film circles that the film’s dark depiction of Jewish life might hurt it with Academy voters, but all but one of our respondents said it was making their top 10 list (and the one who was a holdout simply hadn’t seen it yet). Moreover, as one Jewish voter in the actor’s wing said: “It’s filled with stereotypes, but I think they’re rather accurate.” At this point, a nomination is more likely than not (consider this slot No. 8), but it’s by no means definite.
Focus Features
A Clint Eastwood film about Nelson Mandela would seem to be a lock for a Best Picture nomination, but for the fact that many people in film circles consider the film to be drastically inferior to some of his recent efforts—including Gran Torino, Million Dollar Baby, Flags of Our Fathers, and Mystic River. Moreover, the mere subject matter feels like homework. As one Academy member put it, “It’s sitting on my bedstand just beckoning to be watched, but I can’t bring myself to do it.” The odds of getting that ninth nomination? Around 50-50.
Keith Bernstein / Warner Bros. Pictures
In December, the Rob Marshall-directed musical got nominated for the Broadcast Film Critics Association Award for Best Picture. Historically, the BFCAs serve as a fairly reliable indicator of what’s to come with the Oscars, and a Golden Globe nomination also suggested the film had considerable momentum. Then the reviews came out and they were savage. Audiences don’t appear to like it much better. Moreover, not one voter surveyed said the film would be making their list. Could Harvey Weinstein—a champion campaigner if ever there was one—manage to pull a rabbit out of his hat? Perhaps, but at this point, it seems pretty unlikely.
The Weinstein Company
A few weeks ago, the probability of this sci-fi thriller being nominated was virtually nonexistent. But with Nine looking more and more like a lost cause, there appears to be renewed interest in District 9. Says one voter: “It’s going on my list for sure. When I think about what makes an Oscar contender, it’s not just whether the movie was good but whether it was brave and tried to do something a little different. For me, District 9 was a real thinking man’s sci-film film. It had all the best of what Peter Jackson is, it introduced a new director to the world, and it said something about society and culture. It didn’t underestimate the intelligence of its audience and the viral campaign was brilliant.” Could this be the 10th film? Again, the odds are somewhere around 50-50.
Sony Pictures
Some critics say that the film deserves to be nominated but almost no one has seen the film, about an Iraq war veteran. And as one voter says: “ The Hurt Locker does the job of The Messenger so much more interestingly. If you’re going to do a war-is-hell movie, it’s just the better one.” The Messenger has an outside chance of being nominated, but it’s small.
Oscilloscope Pictures / Everett Collection
This Sandra Bullock tearjerker about a Tennessee socialite who takes in a homeless kid and teaches him to play football feels like Oscar bait—and it appears to be working. The Blind Side has made $200 million and even the most cynical voters admitted that the film sort of worked on them. “What a bad movie,” one of them admitted, “but I couldn’t believe how much I enjoyed it.” Said another: “Never underestimate the mediocrity of the Academy. They’re not all stupid old farts but a fair number of them are.” Moreover, rich-white-woman-takes-on-poor-black-boy-and-helps-him-triumph is a pretty good storyline where the liberal-minded Academy voters are concerned. It will likely be shut out of a Best Picture nomination but could blindside some other films and sneak in.
Ralph Nelson / Warner Bros. Pictures
