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Read it at FiveThirtyEight
Mitt Romney may not be the frontrunner anymore: since Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced his candidacy for president, five polls show him leading the GOP pack. On average, Perry has 26 percent of the vote in these surveys while Romney has 16 percent. In polls prior to his announcement, Perry averaged 14 percent, while Romney averaged 21 percent. As a word of warning, Nate Silver notes that at this point in 2007, Rudy Giuliani led the GOP pack with 29 percent of the vote.