President Donald Trump needs to look beyond his faithful MAGA base if he wants to emerge victorious in November, a Republican pollster has warned.
Kristen Soltis Anderson, a founding partner of the research firm Echelon Insights, said an often-overlooked camp of Republican voters—which she dubbed “normie” Republicans—will actually be more crucial to the midterms than the MAGA devotees or the avowed Never-Trumpers.
The “normie” conservatives, who comprise about half of all Republicans, support Trump’s presidency but don’t agree with him on every issue. Most of them are Fox News viewers who detest Democrats—but don’t consider themselves part of the MAGA movement.
In fact, polls show that they’re growing increasingly unhappy with Trump, according to Anderson.
“It’s with this group that the GOP’s most immediate political challenge really lies,” she wrote in an op-ed for The New York Times.
When reached for comment, the White House touted Trump’s policies and said he will “continue to draw a sharp contrast with his common sense agenda and the radical Democrats in Congress.”
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said.
Anderson noted that the number of Republicans who think of themselves as supporters of the GOP rather than Trump has risen “substantially.” The good news for the party, however, is that 68 percent of these party-first Republicans described themselves as extremely likely to vote in November, and 91 percent plan to vote for a conservative candidate.
Still, there are signs that Republicans aren’t as hyped up as they used to be.
The percentage of Republicans who view Trump favorably has dropped by 10 points from last year. When it comes to motivation to vote, the gap between Trump-first Republicans and party-first Republicans widens “enormously,” Anderson said, with 62 percent of those in the first group saying they are extremely motivated, compared with only 49 percent in the second group.
“The flagging enthusiasm of these normies ought to be a powerful alarm bell for Republican candidates looking to win the 2026 elections,” she warned. “This matters because Democrats are essentially telling pollsters they will walk across hot coals to get to the polls.”
Anderson’s polling found that 82 percent of Democrats think it’s “extremely important” to win in the midterms and stop Trump from enacting his agenda, while only 57 percent of Republicans think it’s important for their own party to win, falling further to 47 percent among party-first conservatives.
Driving Republicans’ discontent is Trump’s performance on the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, the overall state of democracy, and the war with Iran.
“Democratic voters clearly feel that the stakes are sky-high in this election. Mr. Trump’s most loyal supporters do, too,” Anderson said. “Many normie Republicans aren’t so sure. If they decide to stay home in November, it will probably spell electoral disaster for the GOP.”
