Some of Donald Trump’s closest allies are raising alarm over his messaging strategy, warning that it could backfire at this year’s midterm elections.
Recent polling shows the 79-year-old president has never been more unpopular. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey of 2,560 adults in late April found his overall approval at just 37 percent, a new low, while “strong” approval among Republicans has fallen to 45 percent from 53 percent in September, the lowest level across both of his terms.
Support for Trump is also slipping among key 2024 voter groups, including young voters, white non-college voters, and Latinos. And on core issues, his numbers are deeply negative, especially on the economy and his unpopular war on Iran.
With no clear end to that conflict, the administration is struggling to present a positive economic outlook—fueling growing Republican concern ahead of the midterms, especially as voters rank the economy as their top issue.
“Everybody is pretty realistic about the fact that holding the House is going to be extremely difficult,” a person close to the White House told POLITICO. “Every day the war goes on, every day gas prices hover around five bucks, it makes it less and less likely, and it’s already very unlikely.”
At the same time, Trump is pressing ahead with his tax agenda, promoting his “Big Beautiful Bill,” which would permanently extend individual tax cuts introduced in 2017, eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, and introduce new deductions for U.S.-made auto loans and seniors’ expenses.
“We passed the largest tax cuts in American history, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security for our great seniors,” Trump said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
The proposal has united Democrats in opposition, but some Republican strategists worry the message may fall flat with voters unless it is paired with a sharper, more aggressive contrast with Democrats heading into the midterms.
“You tell people you voted for a tax cut, and they say, ‘That’s nice, that’s good.’ … But what they didn’t tell the voters was, by the way, every Democrat in the House and Senate voted to increase your taxes,” Trump pollster John McLaughlin told POLITICO. “You’re going to see the Republicans getting more aggressive about the contrast with the Democrats, whether it’s implementing workfare this year, it’s rooting out corruption in food stamps and other things like Medicaid.”
Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer added: “You might start talking about how they are for open borders or are for higher taxes. Reminding people that’s there’s consequences. You might not like what you have but you’ll hate what they do. The scare tactic is always tried and true. It works.”
A Republican campaign strategist said the party needs to better emphasize that Democrats are to blame for current problems, noting that in 2012 “you did not hear a Democrat… talk about the economy without mentioning George Bush,” and arguing the approach should be to “always attack.”
The White House told the Daily Beast that Trump will “continue to draw a sharp contrast” with Democrats, arguing their “America-Last policies nearly destroyed our country” during Joe Biden’s presidency, while the president is focused on lowering costs.
“President Trump is the Republicans’ best messenger and motivator who will continue to draw a sharp contrast with his commonsense agenda and the radical Democrats in Congress who allowed millions of illegal aliens to flow through the border; created the worst inflation crisis in decades; unanimously opposed no tax on tips, Social Security, and overtime; and are soft-on-crime,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said.
“The Democrats’ America-Last policies nearly destroyed our country during the failed Biden years, and President Trump has reversed their failures and is working every day to lower costs for working families.”
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
The Republican National Committee echoed that message, saying Democrats are “doubling down on the same failed agenda” and insisting the GOP can promote tax cuts while continuing to attack its opponents.
“While President Trump is focused on lowering costs and strengthening the economy, Democrats are focused on their deranged agenda to oppose President Trump even if it means blocking relief for working families,” RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels said.
But some Republicans warn that a turn toward negative messaging could signal weakness, with one donor saying the shift from promoting achievements to arguing “Democrats are bad” suggests the party may be “behind.”
“If you talk to the NRCC, they’re spinning,” they told POLITICO. “When you go negative, that means you’re behind.”
The NRCC rejected that view, insisting its strategy is “rooted in data and polling, not vibes,” and that it is working with the White House to target Democrats over taxes and economic policy.
Still, one GOP strategist noted that “bomb-throwing works” when you’re in the minority, “not when you are in charge.”
