A shocking new poll has revealed that Florida’s U.S. Senate race is neck and neck, with the Republican incumbent virtually tied with her progressive challenger.
Republicans rejoiced when progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon, 42, beat out the more moderate Alex Vindman in last month’s Democratic primary in a special election to determine who will serve the last two years of Marco Rubio’s term after he left to become secretary of state.
CNN’s resident data guru, Harry Enten, agreed at the time that Nixon’s win essentially clinched the general election for Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, 51, a Trump loyalist chosen by Gov. Ron DeSantis to temporarily fill Rubio’s vacated seat who easily advanced out of the Republican primary.
But a new poll commissioned by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics found that Moody and Nixon both enjoy about 45 percent of support among likely voters in the general election, even when taking into consideration that Florida has about 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, the outlet reported.
The poll, which was conducted this week, found Moody had a slight advantage at 45.2 percent versus Nixon’s 44.8 percent, with the results well within the poll’s 3.2 percent margin of error.
Another 2.9 percent of respondents said they preferred to vote for someone else entirely, while 7.1 percent were undecided.
The sample was weighted to match the active voter rolls, which are 42 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic, and 27 percent no party or minor party, according to Florida Politics.
The survey found that Nixon, who according to Politico joined the Democratic Socialists of America in June but doesn’t use the term “socialist” to describe her policy positions, led by 50 percent to 37 percent among Independents.
A poll earlier this month by Quantus Insights found Moody leading Nixon by 7 points, while the University of North Florida put Moody ahead by 8 points during a hypothetical match-up in July, according to The New York Times.
The North Florida poll also found, however, that Moody led Vindman by 10 points.
Vindman, a retired Army intelligence officer who became a whistleblower during President Donald Trump’s first term, was better funded than Nixon and enjoyed national name recognition thanks to Trump retaliating against him.
Both Democratic candidates were considered a long shot to flip Florida’s Senate seat, but after Nixon won, Enten declared that the “sun was shining in the Sunshine State” for Republicans, with Kalshi prediction markets giving Moody a 95 percent chance of winning, Mediate reported.
“It turns out that nominating a self-described democratic socialist in a state like Florida, where there are a lot of Cuban refugees, is not necessarily the smartest idea,” Enten said.
The state hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1994 or a Democratic senator since 2012.
Democrats went from having a 3-point edge in party registration over Republicans in 2015 to Republicans having an 8-point advantage in 2020 and an 11-point edge today.
Trump, however, is suffering from record-low approval ratings as voters turn on him over the Iran war and his handling of the economy.
Republicans are facing surprisingly tough Senate races in Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine.
The polling group Decision Desk HQ declared the Senate a “pure toss-up” earlier this month after months of predicting Republicans were more likely to keep control of the upper house of Congress in November.
