A major pollster has declared the Senate a “pure toss-up” after months of giving Republicans an advantage in the midterm elections.
Throughout July, Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans about a 60 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate in November, according to its Senate forecast board.
Democrats, however, have steadily chipped away at that advantage in August as polling showed Republicans losing ground in key races.
As of Monday, the average seat outcome across 1 million simulations was a 50-50 tie, which would give Republicans the edge thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, Decision Desk HQ wrote in a post on X.com.
A roughly equal number of simulations showed Democrats gaining a slight 51-49 majority, the pollster wrote in a follow-up post.
The findings are based on races in Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine all being labeled a toss-up.
Democrats have a slight statistical advantage in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Maine, while Republicans are more likely to keep Iowa, according to Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, which listed Maine, Texas, and Ohio as the nation’s tightest races.
Decision Desk HQ also gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of winning a majority in the House based on 1 million simulations, up from 60 percent at the end of July.
The projections mirror findings from other major polling analytics firms, including RealClearPolitics and the Cook Political Report, which in late August moved Texas and Iowa from Leaning Republican to Toss-Up.
It’s a remarkable shift given that Trump won both states by more than 13 points each in 2024. The increasingly unpopular president is now facing record-low approval ratings and a voter backlash over his war with Iran and his handling of the economy.
Republicans, however, still maintain a structural advantage in the Senate and currently enjoy a 53-47 seat majority, meaning Democrats will need almost every key race to go their way in order to reclaim the upper house of Congress.
In the House, Democrats need to maintain their current momentum to gain a workable majority in November, thanks in part to Republicans attempting to gerrymander their way to control of the lower chamber, according to a new analysis this week from Axios.
The party’s leaders hope that Trump will remain unpopular as the campaign season kicks into high gear this week—and that he will drag down vulnerable Republicans, the outlet reported.
The president is scheduled to speak both nights at this week’s first-ever Republican midterm convention, a two-day televised event designed to energize MAGA voters.
But with key demographics turning on Trump, dozens of GOP lawmakers have confirmed they intend to skip the convention, giving an array of excuses.
