Republicans were hit with a brutal warning sign with less than two and a half months to go before the midterms, as the ratings for two states that Donald Trump easily won in 2024 have been shifted in Democrats’ favor.
The Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from “lean Republican” to a toss-up as Democrat James Talarico faces off against scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton for the seat.
The non-partisan analysis also shifted the Iowa Senate race to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst to a toss-up after it had previously been considered “lean Republican.”
The Cook Political Report also shifted the Texas governor race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” and the Iowa Senate race from a toss-up to “lean Democrat.”
It’s a remarkable shift after Trump won both Texas and Iowa by more than 13 points each in 2024, but he’s now seeing record-low approval as GOP candidates hit the ground for the final stretch.
While the Cook Political Report acknowledged Republicans maintain a structural advantage when it comes to the two Senate races, they wrote, “it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects.”
Democrats face a tough map to retake the Senate this fall as Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority. But the Democratic campaign arm was quick to embrace the independent analysis on Thursday showing the dynamic shifting in their favor, arguing the path to the majority runs through six Republican-held states that are now rated toss-up or lean D.
In Texas, Talarico, a state representative, is running against the state’s Texas attorney general after Trump helped Paxton out GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. But Paxton has remained bogged down by his wife accusing him of cheating and corruption allegations on the campaign trail.
The last time a Democrat won statewide in Texas was in 1994, but a series of recent polls has shown Talarico with a slight edge as candidates prepare for the final sprint toward Election Day in November.
In Iowa, Democrats recently picked more moderate state representative Josh Turek as their nominee to face off against Rep. Ashley Hinson in the general election. Recent polling has yielded mixed results, but the last Democrat to represent the state in the Senate was Tom Harkin, who did not run for reelection in 2014 before it flipped red.
While Iowa voted for Trump three times in a row, it has yielded mixed results in down-ballot races, leaving some to argue it’s still a purple state.
Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand was reelected statewide in 2022 to continue in his job. Sand is now the Democratic nominee for governor in a race against Republican Zach Lahn.
That race has shifted to “Lean Democrat,” as polling in recent weeks has consistently shown Sand with a several-point edge as he tries to keep the race local to Iowa.
While close Trump ally Texas Gov. Greg Abbott appears to be maintaining a lead in Texas, polls show that race has slightly shifted away from Republicans as he runs for reelection against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
