Republican efforts to gerrymander their way to a House majority in November are on track to fail if Democrats can maintain their current momentum leading up to the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump set off a national, mid-cycle redistricting war last year when he demanded that Texas redraw its political maps to help Republicans gain five seats.
Other red states followed suit, and even with some blue states like California drawing new Democratic-leaning districts to help offset Republican gains elsewhere, the GOP holds a pre-election advantage of about eight or nine seats.
But even that might not be enough to guarantee Republicans keep the House in November, according to a new analysis from Axios.
The Republican gerrymander is enough to offset a 5-point Democratic wave, but Democrats have consistently outperformed that metric.
They’re currently leading by 6 points on a generic ballot, which would produce a workable majority of 221-214, Axios found.
During special elections this year, Democrats have run about 10 points ahead of their 2024 presidential election performance.
If that number holds throughout the midterms, Democrats are projected to win a comfortable 230-205 majority, according to Axios’ analysis.
If, on the other hand, 2026 looks like 2024, with GOP candidates winning every district Trump would have carried under the new maps, Republicans will gain 16 seats and hold a 236-199 majority.
Democrats are hoping that Trump–who is facing record-low approval ratings—will continue to remain unpopular, and that he will drag down vulnerable Republicans.
Trump has vowed to personally stump for candidates in battleground states and is scheduled to speak both nights at this week’s two-day televised party convention in Dallas, where Republicans hope to energize MAGA voters even though the president’s name won’t be on the ballot in November.
Dozens of GOP lawmakers have confirmed they intend to skip the convention, giving an array of excuses as they try to navigate voter backlash over Trump’s Iran war and handling of the economy.
Candidates in the most competitive races are in a major bind over the event.
Aligning too closely with Trump could hurt their campaigns, but distancing themselves from the president could make him less likely to dip into his MAGA Inc. super PAC’s $400 million-plus war chest to help finance their campaigns.
It could all be a moot point, though, if Trump decides not to spend heavily on the midterms.
The president’s advisers have promised his political operation’s spending will kick into high gear after Labor Day, but some insiders now worry that Trump plans to use the money to anoint a political successor or pay for his own legal bills, travel, events, and pet projects, such as his presidential library.
