The Campaign

The November Surprise

Will Obama’s cockiness cost him?

October may have passed without a surprise, but Election Day may have its own in store. On The Washington Post’s op-ed page, a bunch of political hands speculate what exactly it may be. Doug Schoen says keep your eye on Hispanic voters, a trouble group for Obama in the primaries whose support “is one of the major reasons Obama is poised to win states such as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada and is even competitive in some polls in Arizona.” Ed Rollins says voters may punish Obama’s cockiness by voting for McCain. And Bob Shrum says the biggest surprise—and relief—will be the lack of drama. "The surprise is no surprise—no hanging chads, no reversal of the pre-election polls or the exit polls. Why?” he asks. “The presidential race isn’t close.”