South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has admitted that a Senate race in a deep-red state is far closer than it should be.
Speaking to Semafor, Scott begrudgingly said that Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is at risk of a shock defeat to Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
A Hamilton victory would represent a seismic political change and one of the biggest indications of voter backlash against Donald Trump and the GOP during the president’s turbulent second term. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 or voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.
“It’s a very competitive state, more competitive than I’d like to see it. But the fact of the matter is that we’re going to win in Kansas,” Scott said. “It’ll be closer than I want it to be.”
Kansas is one of the red states that Democrats believe is in play in November because of the deeply unpopular Trump, who is recording near-record-low approval ratings, and the president’s disastrous policies, such as the war in Iran, which has caused soaring gas and diesel prices.
If Democrats flip the Kansas Senate seat, it would go a long way toward helping the party regain control of the upper chamber, with Democrats also widely expected to seize the House.
Several warning signs suggest Marshall’s re-election bid is in danger. Earlier this month, a poll from The Hill/Emerson College Polling found Hamilton, senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, leading Marshall by 2 percentage points (45 percent to 43 percent).
A Wedgewood poll released last week had Hamilton ahead 50 percent to 48 percent in the crucial run-up to the midterms.
The influential Cook Political Report has also shifted the Kansas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
There have been suggestions that Marshall has been trying to distance himself from the deeply unpopular Trump and his policies to boost his re-election chances.
Despite frequently praising ICE and Trump’s hardline immigration tactics, Marshall softened his stance after masked federal agents swarmed parts of Kansas in September, targeting meatpacking plants and potential family members of local children.
“When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe,” Marshall posted on X.
Marshall has also faced major scrutiny after it was reported that he had sued more than 700 of his own patients over outstanding bills while working as an obstetrician-gynecologist.
Elsewhere, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he is desperate for Trump to hit the campaign trail in states that could go either way in November.
“When Trump travels, he hurts people,” Schumer told Semafor. “When he comes to town, that itself helps us. But then he always talks about the wrong things. He talks about things people don’t give a damn about.”
