One of President Donald Trump’s top political priorities is hanging on by a thread.
Kalshi now puts the chance of Congress passing his beloved SAVE America Act at just 3 percent by Nov. 1—a stunning humiliation for the president just a year after he was able to push his “Big Beautiful Bill” over the finish line.
Trump, 80, has gone to great lengths to pressure Congress to move the legislation forward. He even canceled the signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing law in June, saying he refused to enact the popular legislation until after his own new law is passed.
The three percent chance of passage marks an all-time low on Kalshi for the legislation. Its odds of being enacted prior to the midterms were as high as 17.8 percent on July 16.
Its chances of passing have since steadily declined, as swing-state and swing-district Republicans, despite holding a majority in both chambers, have begun distancing themselves from Trump and his unpopular war with Iran.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has repeatedly reminded Trump—who has gone on a number of Truth Social tirades on the matter—that the votes to pass the act are simply not there in the Senate.
The GOP currently holds a 53-47 majority in the chamber. Things are expected to get even tighter, if not flip in Democrats’ favor altogether, in November’s midterms.
If passed, the so-called SAVE America Act would require citizens to bring documents like a passport, birth certificate, or REAL ID when registering to vote.
Democrats argue that such a bill would disenfranchise millions of eligible Americans who do not have a passport or readily available birth certificate—documents that can be costly to replace or acquire.
Critics also point out that there is no evidence that bad actors and undocumented immigrants are participating in voter fraud at a significant level to impact even local elections, which is Trump’s supposed reason behind the bill.
