Ken Paxton, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate in the Texas Senate race, is trailing his Democratic rival in a conservative poll.
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads the scandal-plagued Texas attorney general 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a survey of 1,200 likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.
It’s the third consecutive conservative poll to show Talarico leading Paxton ahead of November’s crucial midterm election. Last week, a Fox News poll showed the progressive Democrat leading Paxton by three points (51 percent to 48 percent) while a Texas Public Opinion Research survey had Talarico ahead 45 percent to 40 percent.
The Texas Senate race is expected to be one of the most closely watched contests of the midterm cycle. If Talarico were to flip Texas and become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from the state in decades, it would give Democrats a major boost in their bid to regain control of the upper chamber.
![Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during the Texas Democratic Convention]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/resizer/v2/TVQAKMLPSJCWLBWUJQKMJHV4LI.jpg?auth=747b52ac9899b7532f4090bfd261a27d66e84d9c8c72f4c4a233cc5065a0d79a&width=800&height=533)
Multiple Republican figures fear Trump torpedoed the GOP’s chances of retaining the Texas Senate seat by endorsing the perpetually embattled Paxton over veteran incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary.
Among the long list of scandals that have plagued Paxton are his impeachment by Texas Republicans over allegations of fraud and obstruction of justice, long-running corruption accusations, and his wife’s filing for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.”
While Talarico’s lead over Paxton in the latest poll is slim, the results contain several warning signs for the Texas attorney general.
One is that 57 percent of likely voters view Paxton unfavorably, compared with 47 percent for Talarico.
Paxton is also underperforming among key Texas voting blocs. Among white likely voters, Paxton holds a 14-point lead over Talarico, 53 percent to 39 percent.
However, that margin is considered low for a Republican candidate in a state where Trump won white voters by 33 points in the 2024 election, as Axios noted. Trump also won Hispanic voters in Texas by 10 points two years ago, whereas Talarico now holds a 19-point lead over Paxton among that group (57 percent to 38).
During an appearance on MS Now’s The Rachel Maddow Show on Monday, Talarico said: “I didn’t think it was possible to find a candidate worse than Ted Cruz, but I think we found him in Ken Paxton.”
“This is the most corrupt politician in our state, one of the most corrupt in the entire country,” Talarico added.
“His own party impeached him in the Texas House. His own staff reported him to the FBI. His own defense attorney just endorsed me in this race. I’m kind of expecting his family dog to run away and head over to my house any day now.”
Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser, told Axios that “the only poll that matters” is the election on Nov. 3.
“Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas—a pipe dream,” Maddux said.
The Daily Beast has contacted the offices of Ken Paxton and James Talarico for comment.
