Obama vs. Romney. When our Newsweek/Daily Beast survey of likely voters pitted President Obama against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Obama edged out Romney—but the gap was smaller than the poll’s margin of error. (Note: results do not display respondents who answered “not sure,” so percentages do not necessarily add up to 100 percent.)
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Obama vs. Romney vs. Trump. Adding the Donald into the mix shifted the results, underscoring how an independent candidate could disrupt the 2012 race. Trump drew more support away from Romney than from Obama.
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Obama vs. Palin. Former Alaska Governor and one-time vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin didn’t come close to President Obama in our survey. It’s that kind of performance that feeds fears in the GOP that Palin could be too polarizing a figure in a general election.
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Obama vs. Palin vs. Trump. In a three-way race, Trump is practically neck-and-neck with Palin. Of course, in that scenario, neither comes close to mounting a serious challenge to the president.
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Obama vs. Trump. Here it is, the one-one-one matchup. In a surprising showing, Trump garnered nearly as much support as the President in our survey of likely voters. But a sizeable number of respondents opted for “not sure,” illustrating the kind of uncertainty that would attach to such a race.
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Trump Takes On the GOP Field. If Trump sought the GOP nomination, he wouldn’t be the most popular choice among likely voters surveyed—but he woudn’t be the worst pick either. The Donald racked up 8% of respondents. At the top of the pack were Romney with 19%, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 18% and Palin with 10%. Lagging Trump in a GOP faceoff: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (7%), former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (5%), Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (1%), Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (1%) and U.S. Ambassador to China and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (1%)
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