New polling shows Democratic Senate candidates closing the gap with Republicans in a series of states Donald Trump handily won in 2024, in a sharp warning to the president that Americans are not happy with the current state of the U.S.
The New York Times/Siena polling indicates the Senate is up for grabs in 2026, even as Democrats face an unfriendly map to take the majority, as Trump is deep underwater with voters.
The Senate is currently split 53-47, with Republicans in the majority. Democrats need to pick up four seats to flip it blue, but are zeroing in on a handful of states that offer the likeliest path, while also fighting to hold onto several Democratic-held seats in battlegrounds.
In Alaska, a state the president won by 13 points less than two years ago, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is trailing incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by just two points, 45 percent to 47 percent. 5 percent did not know or refused to answer.
On Wednesday morning, the Cook Political Report changed its rating for the Alaska Senate race from lean Republican to toss-up after another candidate, also named Dan Sullivan, was allowed by the state Supreme Court to remain on the primary ballot, adding further confusion to the already competitive race.
Meanwhile, in Iowa, where GOP Senator Joni Ernst is retiring, Democratic candidate Josh Turek is also trailing Republican Ashley Hinson by just two points, 46 percent to 48 percent. It was another state Trump won in 2024 by more than 13 points.
And in Ohio, where Trump won by 11 points less than two years ago, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is closing in as he looks to make a comeback. The NYT polling shows Brown with 47 percent and Republican Sen. Jon Husted with 50 percent.
While Democrats are within the margin of error in the three Trump-won states, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has also pulled ahead in the North Carolina Senate race, where he has been leading Republican candidate Michael Whatley in multiple polls.
This was a deep-purple state known for split tickets. Trump won by just over three points in 2024, but it also elected a Democratic governor that year.
Democrats see it as one of their likeliest pickup opportunities after Trump’s fight with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis last summer led Tillis to announce he would not seek reelection, leaving the seat wide open and Trump backing Whatley, his close ally in the race.
The NYT poll on Wednesday found Cooper leading Whatley 50 percent to 47 percent among likely voters.
The latest polling comes after the New York Times/Siena polling also found that Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is deadlocked with Republican Ken Paxton 47 percent to 47 percent in a state Democrats have not won statewide in more than 30 years.
In Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins is fighting to hold onto a GOP-held seat that Kamala Harris won in 2024, she is trailing Democratic candidate Graham Platner by two points, according to the NYT/Siena poll. Collins was at 47 percent to Platner’s 49 percent.
It comes as Trump has thrown the Senate into chaos and brought Congress to a standstill over his demands that they pass his SAVE America Act, even though he does not have the votes. The president has repeatedly put Republican senators on blast by name as he demands Republicans do his bidding despite the challenging midterm landscape.
Across all six states, the majority of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the job. 54 percent said they disapproved, including 48 percent who strongly disapproved of the president’s handling of the job. Only 43 percent approved.
