Donald Trump’s scandal-ridden endorsed candidate in the Texas Senate race could lose the crucial midterm election, according to a new poll.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is tied at 47 percent with his Democratic rival for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, according to a New York Times/Siena poll of 656 likely Texas voters.
However, The New York Times noted there are “several signs of weakness” for Paxton elsewhere in the poll, suggesting Talarico has a good chance of becoming the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988 this November.
If Talarico were to flip Texas, it would give Democrats a major boost in their bid to regain control of the Senate in the midterms. Democrats are already widely expected to win back control of the House in November because of intense backlash to Trump’s second term, combined with the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the lower chamber.
Trump endorsed his longtime ally Paxton in the Texas Senate GOP primary over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in what became the most expensive Senate primary campaign in U.S. history.
Immediately after Paxton’s victory, Republicans expressed fears that having the attorney general as the GOP nominee had severely damaged the party’s chances of holding what is usually a safe Republican seat.
That concern stems from the constant stream of scandals that have followed Paxton. These include being impeached by Texas Republicans over fraud and obstruction of justice allegations, facing long-running corruption accusations, and having his wife file for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.”
Paxton has also not been discreet about appearing in public with his alleged mistress, Christian influencer Tracy Duhon.
The Times/Siena poll found that only 38 percent of likely Texas voters believe Paxton has “good character,” compared with 56 percent who said the same of Talarico.
Half of the respondents also described Paxton as “too extreme,” compared with 43 percent who said the same about the progressive Democrat. When asked which candidate has the “right kind of moral values,” 51 percent chose Talarico, while just 39 percent selected Paxton.
The poll also suggests Talarico’s numbers could improve. Among the crucial bloc of independent voters, 23 percent of those who are not already supporting the Democrat said they were open to doing so, compared with just 7 percent who said the same about Paxton.
Nearly 1 in 10 Texans (9 percent) who voted for Trump in 2024 said they now back Talarico, while just 1 percent of those who voted for Kamala Harris support Paxton.
Melissa Daniels, a 34-year-old political independent, told The New York Times why she plans to vote for Talarico.
“I think he’s focusing on the common issues that people have,” she said. “We want to feel safe. We want to be able to afford groceries and, you know, those issues that we care about.
“Paxton’s focused on, you know, IVF and who’s using what bathroom,” Daniels added. “Just stuff that isn’t really affecting the day-to-day lives of Americans.”
The Daily Beast has contacted Ken Paxton’s office for comment.
