CNN data expert Harry Enten has predicted a looming disaster for President Donald Trump’s GOP in November’s crucial midterm elections.
Enten, the network’s chief data analyst, appeared stunned on CNN’s The Source with Kaitlan Collins on Thursday night as he reacted to news that progressive Democrat Analilia Mejia had steamrolled Republican Joe Hathaway in the race for New Jersey’s 11th seat.
With 94 percent of the vote counted, Mejia is nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Hathaway. She will replace former Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who vacated the seat to become New Jersey’s governor.
Mejia’s campaign centered on trashing Trump’s leadership and heavily criticized the president for pardoning those who took part in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.
The result is an “absolute disaster” for Trump, Enten told host Collins, pointing out that the president’s approval rating has plummeted, while Democrats have exceeded expectations in multiple consecutive races.
“OK, so also, this is a state where we know suburban voters make up a pretty big share of the electorate. The president got to the White House by having more ground in the suburbs. You talked about [Kamala] Harris’ numbers. What do the numbers show on that now in this moment?” asked Collins.
“Yeah. Absolute disaster. Absolute disaster,” said Enten, noting that Mejia’s victory on Thursday is “very much part of a trend.”
Enten noted that Trump’s net approval rating among registered voters in the suburbs is now “20 points underwater”.
“So we are talking about an over 20-point shift,” Enten added. “So what we see in New Jersey, to me, it‘s going to be seen throughout the nation come this fall if these numbers hold.”
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales brushed off Enten’s remarks, telling the Daily Beast that Trump is “the unequivocal leader of the Republican party” and “he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people.”
“President Trump was elected with a resounding mandate to reverse disastrous Biden-era policies and unleash a new era of prosperity for our country – and it’s clear that he has delivered for Americans with a secure border, cooling core inflation, working-class tax cuts, new trade deals, new drug pricing deals, and trillions in investments," said Wales.
“The United States is once again respected thanks to President Trump’s peace-through-strength, America First policies and bold actions. The White House is keen to tout these victories in the months ahead as we continue to work to Make America Great Again,” the spokeswoman added.
Mejia’s victory comes as Democrats and some Republicans anticipate a “blue wave” in the 2026 midterms.
A growing number of prominent voices, including White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair and Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, have warned of trouble for Trump.
Trump’s approval ratings have slumped in response to his war with Iran, which he launched on Feb. 28. A scathing poll this week showed that Americans are overwhelmingly skeptical of the conflict, with just 24 percent saying it has been worth the cost.
