Donald Trump’s support among moderate Republicans is crumbling, CNN’s data guru warns.
On Tuesday, Harry Enten dissected yet another poll that spells trouble for the 80-year-old president, whose approval rating is already cratering among young people and independents.
With early voting for the midterms beginning next month, moderate Republicans—who comprise about 30 to 40 percent of the GOP—are also poised to drag down the Trump-centric party.
“Moderate Republicans [are] abandoning Donald John Trump,” Enten said on CNN News Central, “and that is a big uh-oh.”
Citing a CNN poll conducted late last month, Enten noted how, in October 2024, Trump had a 69-point net positive approval rating among moderate Republicans, including “leaners.” Now, however, Trump is up just ten points, meaning he dropped a whopping 59 points.
“He’s just barely above water!” Enten said.
Trump’s erosion in support among that demographic was even bigger on the economy in particular. While Trump was +80 in the month before he won reelection, now he is just +3.
“A 77-point drop on the key issue that got Donald Trump reelected to a second term, where the Republican Party was lock-step in key with him,” Enten noted.
That finding comes as Americans—for the first time in nearly a decade—picked Democrats over Republicans as better equipped to manage the economy, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
On specific issues, Enten noted, citing the CNN poll, Trump is in the red, according to moderate Republicans. When asked about his handling of the Iran war, they put him at -6, and on inflation, -17.
All this could harm Republicans on the ballot in November, Enten added.
“If I’m a Republican running for Congress in those swing districts, I need those moderate Republicans, and they are leaving Donald Trump,” he said. “They may be leaving those Republican candidates as well.”
Democrats have consistently outperformed Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. The CNN poll Enten discussed Tuesday showed Democrats with 47 percent and Republicans with 39 percent.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating among all voters—not just moderate Republicans—is at or near historic lows, depending on the surveyor.
Polls from CNN, AP-NORC, and Quinnipiac had the president at 34 percent, 33 percent and 32 percent, respectively.
Yet Trump insisted on Monday that his “real” polling numbers “are the best they have ever been.” He cited none.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Beast.
