It’s time to celebrate TV’s top-shelf shows and performances again, with the 65th Primetime Emmy Awards airing Sunday on CBS at 8 p.m. Neil Patrick Harris, who hosted in 2009, is back as emcee, and it’s a safe bet he won’t be the only returning face on the Emmy stage: voters tend to cast their ballots for familiar favorites year after year. With that in mind, I went through 25 categories and picked the likely winners—along with the nominees I wish could really take home the trophy. —by Jason Lynch
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Homeland (Showtime)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Mad Men (AMC)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Mad Men
Homeland snatched the award last year from perennial category winner Mad Men, but that show’s second-season backlash should lead to a new victor this time around. I see Mad Men taking the trophy back on the heels of another superb season, though a strong case also can be made for Breaking Bad. (One important detail to remember: last Sunday’s Breaking Bad—one of the most devastating hours of television ever—is not eligible for all the Emmys until next year’s ceremony.)
Frank Ockenfels/AMC
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Girls (HBO)
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC)
Veep (HBO)
WILL WIN: Modern Family
SHOULD WIN: Louie
It seems that Emmy voters will keep reflexively picking Modern Family, the winner three years running, until the show is long gone, even though Louie—every week a completely unexpected, breathtaking surprise—is most deserving of the prize. But I’d also be happy to see 30 Rock recognized for its marvelous comic gem of a final season.
ABC/FX
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom (HBO)
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Jon Hamm, Mad Men (AMC)
Damian Lewis, Homeland (AMC)
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards (Netflix)
WILL WIN: Spacey
SHOULD WIN: Hamm
Drama lead actor is always one of the Emmys’ strongest categories, and this year is no exception. Last year’s victor, Lewis, had another strong year but couldn’t shield Brody from the season’s sillier twists. I think it’s finally time for Hamm to get his long-overdue statue, but Don Draper was at his most despicable and loathsome this season, which could be off-putting to voters. Instead, I see them being seduced by Spacey, who offers them the irresistible combo of a movie star pedigree and a deliciously showy performance.
Netflix:AMC
Connie Britton, Nashville (ABC)
Claire Danes, Homeland (Showtime)
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel (A&E)
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Robin Wright, House of Cards (Netflix)
Kerry Washington, Scandal (ABC)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Danes
Even in Homeland’s more outlandish storylines last season, Danes once again turned in the year’s most astonishing, gripping performance. The only actress to even come close to her stratosphere was Orphan Black’s Tatiana Maslany, who wasn’t nominated. Next year could be a real dogfight if Maslany breaks in, but until then Danes dominates this category.
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC)
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development (Netflix)
Don Cheadle, House of Lies (Showtime)
Louis C.K., Louie (FX)
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Showtime)
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
WILL WIN: Parsons
SHOULD WIN: C.K.
This is Parsons’s to lose (at least until the Modern Family cast migrates here, as the Friends crew, which also started out in the supporting categories, did later in that show’s run), though it would be nice to see Baldwin, the pre-Parsons mainstay, honored one final time. But it’s the category’s most understated, fearless performer, C.K., who really should be the victor here.
Laura Dern, Enlightened (HBO)
Lena Dunham, Girls (HBO)
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO)
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)
WILL WIN: Louis-Dreyfus
SHOULD WIN: Dern
How has Poehler never won in this category? I hope she doesn’t end up as the Emmys’ female version of Steve Carell, whose stellar Office work went appallingly unrecognized for that show’s entire run, but it’s unlikely this will be her year, as Emmy favorite Louis-Dreyfus is again the one to beat. As for most deserving, that’s Dern for elegantly mining Amy Jellicoe’s heart and soul in the gone-too-soon Enlightened’s glorious swan song.
HBO
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO)
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland (Showtime)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Paul
Two-time winner Paul still has the advantage, assuming he and Banks don’t split the Breaking Bad vote. If that happens, I’d expect Patinkin—also very deserving in a subtler role than his counterparts—to emerge victorious.
Morena Baccarin, Homeland (Showtime)
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS)
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones (HBO)
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC)
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS)
WILL WIN: Smith
SHOULD WIN: Gunn
Voters will keep handing trophies to Smith as long as her dowager countess is alive and quipping. It’s too bad that comes at the expense of Gunn’s Skyler, whose astonishing onscreen evolution in Breaking’s latter seasons has rivaled only her husband’s.
Getty;AMC
Ty Burrell, Modern Family (ABC)
Adam Driver, Girls (HBO)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC)
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family (ABC)
Tony Hale, Veep (HBO)
WILL WIN: O’Neill
SHOULD WIN: Hader
Last year’s winner, Eric Stonestreet, is out of the running, but I see the award staying in the Modern Family family, this time going to patriarch Ed O’Neill, who has yet to win in the role. Yet Hader—whose indispensable SNL contributions won’t be fully appreciated until this fall, when the show tries to carry on without him (please come back, Stefon!)— is the one who most deserves the prize.
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC)
Anna Chlumsky, Veep (HBO)
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock (NBC)
Jane Lynch, Glee (FOX)
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC)
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
WILL WIN: Vergara
SHOULD WIN: Wever
Two-time winner Bowen could easily repeat, but I think voters will spread the Modern love and pick Vergara instead. Which is too bad for Wever, whose zany Zoey enjoyed both her funniest and most mature season to date.
American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
The Bible (History)
Phil Spector (HBO)
Political Animals (USA)
Top of the Lake (Sundance)
WILL WIN: Behind the Candelabra
SHOULD WIN: Top of the Lake
HBO movies have a lock on this category. If the good-but-not-great Game Change could win last year, this year’s far-superior entry, one of HBO’s best movies in years, should take home the trophy. I loved Candelabra but was even more captivated by Top of the Lake, a treasure I expect viewers will continue discovering for years.
HBO;A&E
Benedict Cumberbatch, Parade’s End (HBO)
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
Toby Jones, That Girl (HBO)
Al Pacino, Phil Spector (HBO)
WILL WIN: Douglas
SHOULD WIN: Damon
Douglas, who disappeared into the role of Liberace, has the flashier part. Add in his movie star credentials and triumphant comeback after throat cancer, and he cannot be denied here. (I’m surprised he wasn’t handed the Emmy during Candelabra’s closing credits.) It’s hard to quibble with that choice, but Damon really had the tougher, more layered role, so I’d go with him.
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
Laura Linney, The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector (HBO)
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake (Sundance)
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals (USA)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Moss
Lange, won last year in supporting, is the default choice, but I see Moss winning instead, in part to compensate for her still-unrewarded Mad Men performance. But this is more than just a Mad Men makegood: her gut-wrenching Top turn deserves the trophy on its own merits.
Sundance
Scott Bakula, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
James Cromwell, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
John Benjamin Hickey, The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)
Peter Mullan, Top of the Lake (Sundance)
Zachary Quinto, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
WILL WIN: Quinto
SHOULD WIN: Mullan
I’m still puzzled that Rob Lowe wasn’t nominated for his clever Candelabra turn; had he cracked the category, he likely would have won. I was most taken with Mullan’s grizzled performance, but his fellow nominees are too well-known for him to have a real shot. In a weak field, I’ll give it to Quinto for his sinister turn in Asylum.
FX, Sundance
Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals (USA)
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
Charlotte Rampling, Restless (Sundance)
Imelda Staunton, The Girl (HBO)
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Burstyn
In 2006, Burstyn was infamously nominated here for a performance in the HBO movie Mrs. Harris, in which she had 14 seconds of screen time and 38 words of dialogue. The moral: Emmy voters love Burstyn. That she was truly superb in Political Animals, whose cancellation I’m still mourning, should put her over the top.
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Dancing With rhe Stars (ABC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)
WILL WIN: The Amazing Race
SHOULD WIN: The Voice
Even in years when it’s not so amazing, The Amazing Race almost always walks away a winner here, so I’ve long stopped betting against it. But I’d prefer to give the prize to The Voice for thriving as its rival singing-competition shows implode.
Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
Anthony Bourdain, The Taste (ABC)
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
Tim Gunn and Heidi Klum, Project Runway (Lifetime)
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol (FOX)
Betty White, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (NBC)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Bergeron
Seacrest is likely due a win at some point, and never underestimate voters’ willingness to hand Betty White any kind of award, but I think Bergeron, who effortlessly keeps Dancing in sync, will repeat.
Adam Taylor/ABC
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
WILL WIN: Jimmy Kimmel Live
SHOULD WIN: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
The Daily Show is Emmy’s biggest juggernaut, winning this category every year since 2003, and who can complain when it’s is still the must-see program in late-night? But I see Jimmy Kimmel Live sneaking in for one big reason: its star-studded, inventive, Matt Damon-hosted episode. If Jason Bourne can’t defeat Jon Stewart, no one can.
ABC, Comedy Central
Breaking Bad, “Dead Freight” (AMC)
Breaking Bad, “Say My Name” (AMC)
Downton Abbey, “Episode 4” (PBS)
Game of Thrones, “The Rains of Castamere” (HBO)
Homeland, “Q&A” (Showtime)
WILL WIN: Game of Thrones
SHOULD WIN: Homeland
In this very strong category, I see Thrones getting a rare podium trip for its shocking “Red Wedding” episode. But from that group, I would pick Homeland for an hour that might have even topped the show’s previous zenith: Season 1’s unforgettable “The Weekend.”
HBO, Showtime
Boardwalk Empire, “Margate Sands” (HBO)
Breaking Bad, “Gliding Over All” (AMC)
Downton Abbey, “Episode 4” (PBS)
Homeland, “Q&A” (Showtime)
House of Cards, “Chapter 1” (Netflix)
WILL WIN: House of Cards
SHOULD WIN: Breaking Bad
Breaking Bad helmer Michelle MacLaren can do no wrong. (One word: “To’hajiilee.” Two more words: “One Minute.”) And her “Q&A” was Homeland’s best episode last season. But House of Cards’ David Fincher will get the prize here, for many of the same reasons that House’s Kevin Spacey will win his category.
Netflix, AMC
Episodes, “Episode 209” (Showtime)
Louie, “Daddy’s Girlfriend (Part 1)” (FX)
The Office, “Finale” (NBC)
30 Rock, “Hogcock!” (NBC)
30 Rock, “Last Lunch” (NBC)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: 30 Rock, “Last Lunch”
Series finales rarely stick the landing. Let’s see, there’s The Shield, and then there’s…pretty much every other one. But 30 Rock managed to pull its off and will get the win narrowly over The Office’s own sublime wrap.
Girls, “On All Fours” (HBO)
Glee, “Diva” (FOX)
Louie, “New Year’s Eve” (FX)
Modern Family, “Arrested” (ABC)
30 Rock, “Hogcock! / Last Lunch” (NBC)
WILL WIN: Modern Family
SHOULD WIN: Girls
Modern Family will win because that’s the way it always is. But I pick Girls’ supremely uncomfortable “On All Fours,” which upended viewers as it pushed the show into unpleasant, but fertile, new territory. Put the Q-tip down, Hannah!
ABC, HBO
Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
The Hour (BBC America)
Parade’s End (HBO)
Phil Spector (HBO)
Top of the Lake (Sundance)
WILL WIN: Candelabra
SHOULD WIN: Top of the Lake
Sound familiar? Again, I have no problem with Candelabra winning here. I just think Top of the Lake was even better.
HBO, Sundance
Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
The Girl (HBO)
Phil Spector (HBO)
Ring of Fire (Lifetime)
Top of the Lake (Sundance)
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Behind the Candelabra
I’ve been deferring to Top of the Lake, but in this category there is no arguing with the assured, crisp work of Candelabra’s Steven Soderbergh, without whom the whole film easily could have dissolved into farce.
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Louis C.K.: Oh My God (HBO)
Mel Brooks Strikes Back! With Mel Brooks and Alan Yentob (HBO)
Saturday Night Live: Weekend Update Thursday (Part One) (NBC)
12-12-12: The Concert for Sandy Relief
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Mel Brooks Strikes Back!
In a category without too many strong favorites, I suspect voters will go for Brooks, as almost a lifetime achievement award for his work. Another distinct possibility: Louis C.K., if voters feel bad for not selecting him elsewhere.
HBO
