Elon Musk will not be working for the Trump administration come July, according to Polymarket investors who have gambled on the political future of MAGA’s new No. 2.
The prediction market, which famously favored a Donald Trump election win last fall while political polls still had the race as neck and neck, gave Musk just an 18 percent chance of still having a White House job by July 1.
That is a massive swing from a week ago. Polymarket’s line on March 26 gave the 53-year-old Tesla CEO an 82 percent of still having a job in the Trump administration by the summer date.
First signs of an “investor” flip-flop on Polymarket began over the weekend as Musk campaigned hard—and spent big—to boost a conservative candidate for Wisconsin’s Supreme Court. That effort fell well short on Tuesday and has been celebrated as a referendum on Musk’s influence by Democrats.
Musk briefly saw his chances of keeping a White House gig through July 1 dip to 69 percent on Sunday in the eyes of Polymarket investors, who anonymously make predictions using cryptocurrency and profit when they end up right.
The real swing came on Wednesday, however, the morning after Musk’s Wisconsin effort fell short by 10 points. A Politico report revealed that same morning there had been chatter within the Trump administration about having Musk leave his DOGE role in late May or early June, when his special government employee status expires.
Musk’s unpredictability with DOGE—like his accidental cut to an ebola prevention program and government-wide “what’d you do this week?” email—had reportedly stressed out big names in the White House as some of his news-making decisions were not first brought to the attention of Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles.
Trump and Musk’s relationship has not been tarnished, the report claimed, but both men have dropped hints—or outright said, as Trump reportedly did at a March cabinet meeting—that Musk’s time in government is coming to a close.
The president told reporters Monday that “at some point Elon’s going to want to go back to his company.” Trump added that he wanted Musk to stay working in the administration, but said it was the world’s richest man who wished to step away soon.
Such comments in addition to Politico’s report apparently has Polymarket investors thinking the White House will not try to find a way to keep Musk on board once his special government employee status expires, as was previously rumored. Special government employees have a 130-day time limit by law, but Team Trump has not shied away from bending some rules in MAGA 2.0.
Having special government status is a must for Musk, however, as it allows him to keep his private industry gigs while working for Trump. It also prevents him from needing any sort of Congressional confirmation, which would surely turn into a national spectacle given how politically charged Musk has become in Trump’s second term.
