Voters are showing far more enthusiasm for Democratic candidates compared with previous midterm cycles, suggesting Donald Trump and the GOP could be heading for a particularly miserable November.
Analysis by The Washington Post found that Americans are overwhelmingly turning out for Democrats in primaries and special elections compared with Republicans. The surge in support has even been seen in heavily Republican districts where a Democratic candidate would typically have little chance of winning the general election.
Voters have cast more ballots in more than 90 percent of Democratic House primaries held this year than in the 2022 midterms, when Republicans took control of the lower chamber. In total, more than 12.6 million ballots have been cast in Democratic House primaries, compared with 8.6 million in GOP contests.
“Something would really fundamentally have to change in a way that would favor the Republicans to change the dynamics that we’re seeing right now,” Michael McDonald, a voter turnout researcher and political science professor at the University of Florida, told the Post.
Historically, the party in power tends to suffer losses in midterm elections.
With Trump posting dire approval ratings amid an unpopular war in Iran and ongoing concerns about the economy, Democrats are widely expected to regain control of the House and possibly even the Senate in November’s nationwide races.
The Post’s analysis suggests voters are casting ballots for Democrats at a much higher rate than for Republicans, including a significant increase in Democratic primary turnout in strongly Republican districts.
That includes Georgia’s 10th Congressional District, currently represented by MAGA Rep. Mike Collins, where Democratic primary turnout has increased by 70 percent since 2022.
This cycle has also seen a rise in median turnout for Democrats in contested House primaries. The median number of votes cast in competitive Democratic primaries in the 2026 cycle is around 72,000, compared with 64,000 in GOP primaries.
In the 2022 and 2018 midterm cycles, median turnout for both parties was essentially tied at around 52,000 and 43,000, respectively.
The Post’s analysis also suggests Republicans’ redistricting efforts to gain an advantage in November may not be working.
More Democratic votes have been cast in primaries in states such as California and Texas, including in congressional districts where maps were redrawn to favor Republicans.
There have also been other warning signs for Republicans, including several special election results that have favored Democrats this cycle.
That includes a surprise victory by Democrat Emily Gregory, who flipped a Florida state legislative district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in March.
Election experts have, however, warned that primary and special election trends do not always accurately predict general election results.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
