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      Will the Supreme Court Dodge a Big Marriage Equality Decision?

      Off Ramp Strategy

      David Frum

      Updated Apr. 21, 2017 11:12AM ET / Published Mar. 27, 2013 1:45PM ET 

      Jonathan Rauch predicts the Supreme Court will go evasive in the gay marriage cases:

      The justices did show a lot of interest in a fourth option: an off-ramp. They would decide that the plaintiffs lack standing to bring the case, because California had chosen not to appeal a district court's decision overturning Proposition 8.

      The effect would be to knock down California's gay-marriage ban on a technicality, without affecting the rest of the country.

      Politically the off-ramp presents problems of its own. As several justices pointed out, it implies that if state officials don't like the result of a voter initiative, they could subvert it by defending it badly, baiting a court to overturn it, and then choosing not to appeal.

      So: the law is unhelpful, but the politics are hard. But if I had to guess, I'd say that option 4, the off-ramp, will look less unappealing that the other three options. I didn't see five votes for anything else.

      [Below: Rauch and David Blankenhorn discuss the future of marriage in a dialogue hosted by America Public Media's "On Being"]

      David Frum

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