Politics

Trump at Risk of Midterm Disaster Thanks to Bloc That Helped Get Him Elected

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The president is facing cratering support among the demographic group he made huge gains with in 2024.

Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, October 30, 2024.
Jay Paul/Reuters

President Donald Trump is losing support among Latino voters, which could have disastrous consequences for the GOP in the midterms.

A poll by Florida Atlantic University, conducted for Bloomberg News, suggests that Latino and Hispanic voters who helped put the 79-year-old back in the White House may not show up for Republicans in November’s crucial elections.

The survey found that Latino voters are most concerned about the economy (55 percent), inflation (55 percent), and immigration (17 percent)—hot-button issues that Trump has been criticized for in his second term—and that these worries could influence the outcome of the midterms.

The GOP, which has a razor-thin majority in House, is already predicted to lose control of the lower chamber in November. Backlash against Trump’s erratic second term could also put the Senate in play for Democrats.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 12: People continue to protest in an approximately one-square mile area of downtown Los Angeles in response to a series of immigration raids on June 12, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Protests escalated after President Donald Trump authorized military forces to protect federal property against the wishes of city and state officials who say that the Los Angeles police have the expertise and decades of experience to handle large protest crowds. National Guard troops have so far played no role in quelling violence in the streets, according to Mayor Bass, but are stationed to guard federal buildings.  (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
Donald Trump won nearly half of the key Latino vote in the 2024 election. David McNew/Getty Images

Latinos in particular are turning on Trump over the economy, typically the top voter issue in every election. These concerns could be further exacerbated by the president’s multibillion-dollar war in Iran, which has sparked a worldwide oil crisis and sent gas prices soaring in the U.S.

The FAU poll found that two in five Latinos say their financial situation has not improved over the past year, despite Trump’s vow to end the cost-of-living crisis immediately after returning to office. Another quarter reported that their financial hardships have worsened during Trump’s second term.

Bloomberg News reported, citing ratings from the influential Cook Political Report, that about a dozen GOP-controlled House seats could flip in November, largely due to those districts’ large Hispanic populations.

Trump’s significant gains among Latino voters in the 2024 election were cited as one of the key reasons for his victory over Kamala Harris. He received 48 percent support from Latino voters in 2024, up from 36 percent in 2020 and 28 percent in 2016, according to Pew Research Center analysis.

However, Trump’s support among this key voting bloc has since plummeted to a national average of just 34 percent.

Mayoral candidate Eileen Higgins points as she thanks her staff and supporters on the night of the general election
Latino backlash to Donald Trump’s immigration policies helped Democrat Eileen Higgins win the Miami mayoral race in December. Miami Herald/Carl Juste/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

“Hispanics are the single biggest drop-off group in terms of Trump’s current approval versus his 2024 vote share, other than independent voters,” David Wasserman, senior editor at the Cook Political Report, told Bloomberg News.

Latino backlash against Trump’s presidency was evident in December 2025, when Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-backed Republican Emilio González to become the first Democrat to win a mayoral election in Miami in 28 years.

During her campaign, Higgins strongly criticized ICE raids targeting the city’s large Latino community as part of Trump’s hardline mass deportation efforts.

“Many people in my community are sending a message that they don’t agree [with Trump’s policies],” Republican Miami Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar told Bloomberg News.

In response, White House spokesperson Allison Schuster told the Daily Beast: “President Trump was honored to receive a record level of support from Hispanic Americans that helped fuel his landslide 2024 election victory, and he’s spent every day since his inauguration working to make life better for them, and all Americans.

“There’s much more work to do, which is why President Trump and Republicans in Congress will continue fighting to make everyday life more affordable for working families.”

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