President Donald Trump’s growing unpopularity has thrust Democrats into a massive lead over Republicans in a major new poll.
A national Emerson survey has found that Democrats are enjoying an 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, which simply asks voters whether they will vote for the Republican or Democrat in their local House race.
The positive movement for Democrats is up three points from Emerson’s survey last month and should set off alarm bells at the RNC, which is staring down the possibility of losing majorities in both the House and Senate just over 100 days from Election Day.
The prediction market Kalshi gives Dems an 83 percent chance of winning a majority in the House and a 44 percent chance of doing the same in the Senate—way up from the 18 percent chance Dems were given to flip the Senate when Trump was sworn in for his second term.
Democrats have enjoyed a steady climb in polls as Trump’s chaotic second term—marred by high gas and grocery prices, a war with Iran, on-and-off-again tariffs, a deadly ICE crackdown, and general chaos—has tanked his approval rating, especially among mothers and Hispanics.
The latest Emerson survey pegged Trump’s approval rating at just 39 percent, which the pollster says is the lowest it has ever been across both terms.
The White House did not respond to an email seeking comment for this article.
Approval of Democrats has steadily risen since last summer.
Emerson’s survey in August found that Republicans and Democrats were tied at 43 percent on a national congressional ballot. The gap rose to six points in Democrats’ favor by January, to 10 points by March, and finally expanded to the 11-point gap it currently sits at in July.
The latest Emerson survey is one of the most dramatic in Democrats’ favor. However, even conservative pollsters are finding that voter sentiments are trending toward Democrats.
A Fox News survey released this week gave Democrats a 7-point advantage in a generic congressional ballot that also discovered that Americans are souring on Trump over his failure to bring prices down.
Fox News analyst Brit Hume said bluntly on Sean Hannity’s show Wednesday that “there’s not much good news for Republicans in this whole poll we did.”
Underwater on the economy,” he said, “underwater on affordability—those two issues are front and center, for sure."
