BOO!

Trump’s October Surprise Is That He’s Torching His Own Party

For whatever twisted psychological reason, Trump is doing something deeply destructive to his party’s majorities in the House and Senate—and to the MAGA brand.

Opinion

The most surprising thing about the 2026 campaign season’s “October surprise” is that it really is a surprise.

Rather than ending a war (completely within his power) or announcing replacements for some of his truly despised Cabinet members (also in his power), President Donald Trump has done something bold and unexpected.

He has decided that, on every day of the homestretch for this year’s midterms, and despite the already big lead Democrats have in the polls, he will do something to undercut any remaining Republican candidate’s chances for victory, to destroy the GOP majorities in the House and Senate and the MAGA brand. He is on the warpath, attacking his own party and its candidates up and down the ballot.

It was no surprise that Trump announced publicly that he’s on the side of war criminal Vladimir Putin in his war with Ukraine. Trump loves war criminals. He loves dictators. He especially loves Uncle Vlad.

The president probably thought announcing a diesel deal with Russia would be a kind of October surprise—a big win on the energy front. But people quickly sussed that it was not only not going to make any difference in the cost of filling up their truck or tractor, and that what Trump was actually doing was offering a lifeline to Putin at the expense not only of Ukraine but of democracy, American values, and global security.

Trump’s statements on the war in Iran have also only hurt him. His concession that the conflict is likely to continue past the election confirmed people’s worst fears.

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But there’s much more. He goes state to state and spouts outrageous lies. An early one was that he would provide voters with a $5,000 check if the GOP held on to majorities in the House and Senate. The idea turned into a cudgel against Republicans because not only was it a lie, but everyone—everyone—knew it.

One day, he berates the appearance or personalities of candidates he is backing. The next, he makes weird remarks about their shapely butts.

Trump’s crazed attacks on Democrats, meanwhile, from racist name-calling to going after Texas State Rep. (and Democratic Senate candidate) James Talarico for being a vegan, have backfired time after time.

His assertions that he has been drawing big crowds while cameras consistently prove otherwise are making him look crazier and crazier.

His appointment of a new press secretary? A flop! She’s already been fired. Now rumors of widespread White House chaos are breaking out.

Statements that he can do anything he wants feed the narrative that he is an authoritarian. Statements that he has passed simple cognitive tests underscore the widespread belief that he is a nitwit who is losing his marbles.

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With every new rally, every new speech, every new unfulfillable promise, every new wild slur, Trump looks more pathetic and desperate—and it taints his entire party.

The fact that many of Trump’s handpicked candidates, like Ken Paxton in Texas or Mike Collins in Georgia or Mike Rogers in Michigan or Max Miller in Ohio or Darline Graham in South Carolina, are just terrible choices doesn’t help. Which is why daily pollsters are moving more and more races in the direction of Dems.

With each passing poll, Trump’s numbers plummet. He says, “make the election a referendum on me!” And Democrats shout, “Yes, sir! We’re on it.” Because the more it becomes about a president whose economic approval rating is 22 percent and who has 70 percent of the country thinking he’s making them less well-off, the better the chances of a blue wave. (Paxton has said that Trump’s all-Trump-all-the-time midterm convention actually hurt his poll numbers.)

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One Democratic member of Congress with whom I recently spoke said they are tracking 40 races they think they can pick up and only monitoring five or so they think they will lose. Who knows what the final result will be.

The only thing we can say for sure is that the most powerful man in the world, operating from his most renowned bully pulpit, with hundreds of millions of dollars of billionaire funding (Elon Musk appears to be backing the cratering Paxton campaign almost single-handedly), is unable to help his party and is actually, in material ways, making matters worse for them with his every move.

As bad results appear inevitable, we’re even starting to see something that has almost never happened during the Trump era—yes, it’s over a decade… what the f–k were we thinking?— in U.S. politics: Republicans are starting to criticize the president. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana rejected Trump’s excuses blaming Ukraine for high oil prices and said the reason was the Iran war. Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized Trump’s efforts to deport Rep. Ilhan Omar. Mike Rogers has said the trade war with Canada was a mistake.

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And in the White House, the principal activity these days seems to be searching for scapegoats—or planning a new career. (Don’t worry Susie Wiles, you won’t miss the job when you’re gone. C’mon Stephen Miller, we can see you hiding under your desk.)

Trump, the GOP, and MAGA are in full meltdown mode. And while it is glorious to watch and long overdue, the fear remains that, seeing his politics fail, seeing the handwriting on the wall, Trump may revert to more desperate tactics to avoid Democratic majorities that could make his next two years (or more) a living hell. While his court cases to seize voter rolls are regularly failing, we have not seen his DoJ or DHS seizing voting machines, sequestering election results, or claiming specific instances of foreign election meddling. We have not seen troops or ICE thugs sent to intimidate voters or rout them out of voting lines and arrest them.

In other words, while we have seen plenty of examples of the worst damage Trump can do to his own party as a failing, flailing politician, we have yet to see the worst he can do as a demented wannabe dictator who holds democracy in contempt and who cares about nothing or no one other than himself.

We still must brace ourselves for the prospect that Trump feels only a November shock to our system can make up for his failure to manufacture a suitable October surprise. And we must recognize that the only antidote for such measures will be an even greater turnout and a more resounding rejection than even that the GOP is bracing for today.

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David RothkopfChief Global Affairs Columnist

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