CNN’s chief data analyst is sounding the alarm on President Donald Trump’s abysmal poll numbers, saying they amount to an “absolute collapse” among key supporters.
CNN’s Harry Enten said Trump, pushing 80, has watched his approval rating tank in recent months, with his disapproval hitting a record 62 percent as Republican-leaning Independents turn on him.
“We are talking about a very important block [of voters] for the president of the United States—that is Republican-leaning Independents. That is what’s going on," Enten said Monday.
At this point in Trump’s first term, nearly three-quarters of Republican-leaning Independents supported him. Now, support has slipped to just half.
“Down he goes—an absolute collapse,“ Enten said.
That shakes out to a 20 percent plunge among a group of voters who “traditionally has very much been in the president’s camp.”
Comparing the fresh polls to Trump’s support among Republican-leaning Independents at the election, Enten said Trump had gone “down into the deep blue sea.”
Independents who lean Republican overwhelmingly voted for Trump over Kamala Harris just 18 months ago. In November 2024, he won 91 percent of their votes.
“He’s just above 50 percent in a group that overwhelmingly supported him back in the 2024 election,” he said.
“I believe that is a 38-point drop. A 38-point drop from where he was in the 2024 election.”
Trump has had a shockingly poor run in the polls lately, as he muddles through the Iran war, watching gas prices rise to new heights.
The months of uncertainty and posturing over the Strait of Hormuz, his AI Jesus debacle, and persistent concerns about the president’s health have all added to a chaotic news cycle for the administration, with polls consistently showing voters are concerned about the economy and the cost of living, and blame Trump for higher prices.
Support for the Iran war is also in the negative, just two months in.
“They’re waving ‘adios, amigos, goodbye. We no longer support you...We are going in the other direction. We’re deciding to disapprove, not approve,’” Enten said,
And in more bad news for Trump, the bleeding is not contained to the top. The same Republican-leaning Independents abandoning the president are beginning to turn their back on Republicans in Congress.
“They supported Republican candidates by 83 points, but now it’s 68 points. That’s a 15-point drop again, in only 18 months,” Enten pointed out.
“What we’re seeing right now is that collapse in support for President Trump among Republican-leaning Independents absolutely finding its way down ballot.”
That’s making a lot of Republicans in Congress extremely nervous as they look to the midterms.
“If these numbers hold for the 2026 election...that would be absolutely devastating for Republicans. These are not numbers that Republicans win with. These are numbers that Republicans lose with,” Enten said.
