Prediction market company Polymarket has defended its decision to allow its users to bet on war in Iran, calling the insights “invaluable” to those in the Middle East.
Several Polymarket accounts made bets right before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran early Saturday morning.
The Financial Times reported that a user named Dicedicedice cashed in nearly $150,000 on their wager that the U.S. would attack Iran by the end of February 28. Meanwhile, another gambler named Magamyman made more than $360,000 betting on the event.
The bets raised suspicions online, with California Rep. Mike Levin scrutinizing the timing of Magamyman’s bets. He noted that Donald Trump Jr. is on the Polymarket advisory board and that the Trump administration has been backing the company amid growing backlash.
“Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action,” Levin posted on X. “We need answers, transparency, and oversight.”
Polymarket wrote a note on its website addressing war betting, which is displayed above markets about Iran. Users have been wagering on regime change, the ousting of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and on-the-ground intervention by U.S. troops in Iran.
“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” the note read. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today.”
The company added that it spoke to “those directly affected by the attacks” who asked Polymarket “dozens of questions.”
“We realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not,” the statement continued.
The Daily Beast reached out to Polymarket for comment and clarification on its policies.
The U.S. has executed a number of surprising and destabilizing military operations this year, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Some Polymarket users have been eerily accurate with seemingly far-off predictions. For example, one gambler raked in nearly half a million dollars by predicting Maduro’s ouster, sparking speculation about insider trading.
Polymarket has faced criticism for allowing users to bet on past tragedies. Beyond the attacks on Iran, the company was lambasted for allowing people to bet on how devastating last year’s Palisades wildfires would be.
