Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett this afternoon confirmed her widely-rumored plans to enter the state’s Senate race next fall, seeking to oust incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
And that is a major problem for Democrats trying to win back the Senate majority next November.
Until now, the narrative surrounding the Lone Star state’s 2026 Senate race has been primarily about Republican infighting. The GOP is staging a three-way primary between Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
The concern among Republicans is that Paxton, who is a favorite among MAGA true believers, winds up winning the nomination. Why? Because of, well, his past (and present) scandals, he’s not seen as a candidate who can appeal to voters outside of that base. That narrow band of support could put the seat in play for Democrats next fall.
But Crockett’s candidacy changes that equation. She has made a name for herself nationally in her two terms in office thanks largely to her very aggressive opposition to President Trump and his party.
(Sidebar: Trump himself has taken notice, regularly attacking Crockett as a “low IQ individual” in speeches and social media posts.)
That aggressiveness plays very well among liberal Democrats, which means Crockett could be formidable in a Democratic primary—where she will very likely be pitted against state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the party who has also proved to be a powerful fundraiser in his first few months in the race. (Former Rep. Collin Allred, who lost against Ted Cruz in 2024 and had been running a second campaign against Cornyn, switched to a House race on Monday morning.)
The problem for Democrats? Call it the Reverse Paxton: Crockett is unpopular among much of the rest of the Texas electorate, making it very hard for her to win statewide—even against someone as controversial as Paxton.
Need proof? Over the summer, the National Republican Senatorial Committee paid for a Democratic primary poll that showed Crockett leading Allred by 15 points. (Talarico was not then in the race.)
The poll was clearly done—and released publicly—to entice Crockett into the race, with Republicans believing she would a) be the favorite to win the Democratic primary and b) be far easier to beat in a general election.
She clearly has a lot of work to do to prove she can win over Texan swing voters. And if Senate Democrats come up just short of the majority next November, I think we may look back on today as when their chances at that 51st seat took a big hit.
